St. Louis Rams and Wes Welker: Why It Won’t Work

The St. Louis Rams made a major shakeup in their wide receiver group on Monday. First, third-year wide receiver Stedman Bailey was suspended for four games after violating the NFL’s Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse. To fill the void left by Bailey, St. Louis signed five-time Pro Bowler Wes Welker from free agency.

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Rams faithful are hopeful that Welker can change the fortunes of their offense, especially in converting 1st downs and on 3rd down conversions. The Rams have the fewest 1st downs in the NFL in 2015 with just 122 through eight games. The next closest team is the San Francisco 49ers with 144 total 1st downs. They are also a league-worst with 58 1st downs from the pass with just 58- Minnesota’s 78 being the next closest mark.

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The numbers are worse when looking at the Rams’ 3rd down conversion rate. The Rams again sit at the bottom of the NFL, converting just 23.8% of 3rd down attempts. The hope is that Welker’s ability in the short passing game will help Nick Foles and the Rams improve these numbers.

Jan 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker against the Indianapolis Colts in the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Colts defeated the Broncos 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The 34 year old Welker signed a one-year deal after spending the opening nine weeks of the 2015 NFL season as a free agent. While many believe that Welker will restore the Rams’ stagnant offense, this pairing is not set up for success.

Fans remember Welker mainly for his time in New England with the Patriots. In a six season stretch with the Patriots, Welker hauled in an amazing 672 receptions for 7,459 yards and 37 touchdowns. He averaged 11 yards per reception and excelled as the preeminent slot receiver in the NFL.

Welker, however, is not that receiver that many remember. In two seasons since leaving New England, Welker has just 122 receptions for 1,242 yards and 12 touchdowns. He managed just 49 receptions for 464 yards and two touchdowns in 2014 as a member of the Denver Broncos – dealing with injury and concussion problems throughout his final season with the team.

While Welker was known for his terrific quickness and ability to get in and out of his breaks during his dominant run, that quickness has trailed off to an extent with Welker in recent years. Welker no longer has the incredible ability he once possessed to get separation, although he still has very sure hands – dropping just two passes in 2014.

Welker’s style of play also does not fit mold in the current Rams offense. His career average of 11 yards per reception would be the 3rd lowest amongst Rams receivers, trailing Kenny Britt and Bailey. Taking Welker’s most recent season’s into account, he would fall to fourth – and last – amongst Rams receivers with 10 or more receptions.

The recent mark of 10.1 yards per reception for Welker would also sit more than a full yard and a half below the current mark of Nick Foles. While Foles has struggled all season, his small amount of success has come when pushing the ball down field. This was evident in St. Louis’ Week 9 loss to the Vikings when Foles found Britt for passes of 55 and 23 yards. These 78 yards were nearly half of Foles’ 168 yards on the day.

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While Welker can bring some help to the Rams last-ranked passing offense, do not expect him to be the savior that will turn around Nick files’ or the Rams’ season. The team is still a run-first team that has struggled to accomplish anything in the passing game, and adding a poor fit in Welker will not change that going forward.