Minnesota Vikings: Will Adrian Peterson have a big Week 12?
Minnesota Vikings superstar Adrian Peterson is already up over 1,000 rushing yards on the season, but he has a lot of work to do if he wants to flirt with 2,000 yards on the ground again.
In last week’s loss to the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings elite running back Adrian Peterson managed to score a rushing touchdown in his third straight game, but he was unable to eclipse 50 yards on the ground due to a workload of just 13 carries. That was the least amount of rushing attempts he received in a single game ever since earning just ten in the Vikings Week 1 blowout loss to Carlos Hyde and the San Francisco 49ers, and this 13-carry outing came a week after he trampled a previously solid Oakland Raiders run defense for 203 yards.
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Tomorrow, the Vikings will face off against the Atlanta Falcons, and it isn’t easy to get a read on what fantasy owners and Vikings fans should expect from the 30-year-old on the ground. A full slate of carries should be on the way after Peterson was barely used against Green Bay in Week 11, but just how many yards will he put together?
The Falcons are tied with the Cleveland Browns notoriously awful run defense in fantasy points per game allowed to RBs, according to Pro-Football Reference, and yet they have allowed the least rushing yards this season with an imposing 3.6 yards per carry allowed. That’s the third-lowest average surrendered, which makes it puzzling to see that running backs have been racking up points for fantasy owners against them.
However, it all boils down to touchdowns in this case, because only the Detroit Lions have allowed more rushing touchdowns to running backs this season than the Falcons. In fact, with 13 touchdowns from scrimmage allowed to RBs this season, the Falcons join the San Diego Chargers slow-footed linebackers corps as the two teams with the most total touchdowns to running backs surrendered here in 2015.
Peterson isn’t much of a threat in the passing game with just 21 receptions through ten games, and none of those catches include a touchdown. However, his six rushing scores are tied for fourth in the NFL, and he is the only player in the NFL with an average of 100 rushing yards per game or more. That average is largely buoyed by his 203-yard effort against Oakland and two other 100-yard performances that preceded it, but with an average of 4.8 yards per carry on the season, Peterson has largely been successful against all opponents.
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In fact, “All Day”hasn’t been held to under 3.5 yards per carry since a Week 6 battle against the Kansas City Chiefs, making him a rare fantasy “bust”. His sub-50 yard performance against the Packers was the first time he was held under the 50-yard mark since Week 1.
Basically, Peterson is a sure-fire bounce-back option on volume and touchdown potential alone, but it’s hard to feel confident in a 100-yard game from him. The Falcons run defense can be beaten, but they’ve allowed 100 yards to an entire team on just three occasions this season.
Nov 22, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) against the Green Bay Packers at TCF Bank Stadium. The Packers defeated the Vikings 30-15. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Aside from missed-tackle machine Paul Worrilow, the Falcons defense is filled with capable run defenders, such as Kroy Biermann, Paul Soliai, and Tyson Jackson on the defensive line.
Peterson’s Week 12 matchup against Atlanta tomorrow is far from easy, but I think it’s safe to project roughly 20 carries and a touchdown from him. If he isn’t able to notch double-digit fantasy points, then that would be a disappointment.
80 yards and a touchdown is a reasonable stat-line for Peterson against a solid Falcons run defense that averages slightly more than a touchdown per game to RBs.
That yardage output would be below Peterson’s per-game average this season, but, well, the Falcons allow less than 80 rushing yards per game to all RBs (meaning feature backs plus backups).
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Whatever the case, Peterson’s stats will be workload and touchdown-dependent, and, for the most part, he’s been one of the top backs in both of those departments in 2015.