Tampa Bay Buccaneers: How much credit goes to Dirk Koetter?
With Josh McCown leading the way at quarterback, a dysfunctional offensive line, no running game to speak of, and an in-over-his-head offensive coordinator due to Jeff Tedford’s “season-ending” heart procedure, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense was a total mess in 2014. Their improvements in 2015 can be attributed to a variety of factors, but just how much credit should go to offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter?
Atlanta Falcons fans didn’t seem too upset with the move from Dirk Koetter to Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator under first-year head coach Dan Quinn for the 2015 season, and most analysts saw the Koetter-Shanahan switch as a clear upgrade for Atlanta. Whether that’s the case is still up for debate, but there’s simply no question that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers netted themselves a substantial upgrade by hiring Koetter as their offensive coordinator.
ALSO ON SPIN ZONE: Who is the best QB in NFL history?
Nobody knows what would have happened in 2014 if Jeff Tedford didn’t have to deal with a serious health issue, but we do know that the Bucs offense was an unmitigated disaster. The wide receiver duo of Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson was the lone saving grace for a unit that failed to do anything other than make vertical plays well, and Marcus Arroyo seemed downright clueless when calling plays.
More from NFL Spin Zone
- Dallas Cowboys made the trade everyone else should have made
- Pittsburgh Steelers rookie sleeper everyone should be talking about
- Anthony Richardson putting jaw-dropping talent on display immediately
- Denver Broncos’ stud wide receiver might be out for a while
- Washington Commanders: Three takeaways from win over Ravens
This season, Koetter has been in control of the offense, and the Bucs are moving the ball pretty effectively despite dealing with various injuries to their pass-catchers. Austin Seferian-Jenkins has been able to play in just two games this season due to an injury, which is a shame, since the second-year Washington product did indeed look like a sophomore breakout when on the field early in the season.
In any case, the Bucs are ninth in the league in yards of offense, third in yards per carry, and tenth in net yards per pass attempt. Those are strong numbers across the board, and most of the credit should go to three players.
Doug Martin is back to his elite level of play from his rookie season after two injury-plagued, disastrous seasons behind an offensive line that made life miserable for the former first-round pick out of Boise State. So far this season, Martin has 202 carries for 1,038 yards, averaging a whopping 94.4 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.
There’s no doubt that Martin’s always has talent, and the success he’s having is mostly on him. However, it was Koetter who expressed a high degree of confidence in the previously struggling workhorse back, and it was Koetter’s belief in Martin’s ability that kept him in Tampa Bay as the lead back. Koetter deserves praise for the foresight, for enabling Martin to succeed, and for consistently giving him the ball, though it is a no-brainer to let a star back carry the rock when he’s excelling.
Still, there is such a thing as force-feeding a back too much, and Koetter and the Buccaneer have been able to avoid falling into this trap. Second-year back Charles Sims– he of the lofty pre-draft Matt Forte comparisons that probably led Lovie Smith to draft him- has looked considerably more efficient this season with 4.4 yards per carry. Sims has quietly earned 80 rushing attempts on the season, and he’s become one of the league’s more underrated change-of-pace RBs and a legitimate X-Factor in the Bucs offense with the third-most receptions on the team (28).
The fact that Sims is playing his best football as a No. 2 back with Koetter at the helm isn’t surprising, since it’s an awful lot easier for an all-purpose back to succeed when they are behind a feature back and are benefiting from a competent passing attack. That said, I would consider giving Koetter credit for striking the right balance between Martin and Sims, since it’s tempting to go too far in either direction when dividing touches.
Do you switch carries around if one player struggles? Do you try to see more of what Sims has as a rusher and experiment? Do you ride Martin as much as possible due to his effectiveness? Koetter has managed to avoid running Martin into the ground while still sticking with him, and it’s clear that the Buccaneers approach to the ground game is working.
From the outside looking in, it appears that Koetter has done an excellent job of avoiding the pitfall of trying to be too cute as an offensive coordinator. We’ve seen talented play-callers like Josh McDaniels and Shanahan hurt themselves by, in essence, outsmarting themselves. What Koetter has done best is sticking with what makes the Bucs successful on offense; he’s using Martin frequently, sprinkling in Sims, and getting Evans and Jackson involved on deep shots instead of changing how they are used on the outside.
Of course, it always helps when you have a rookie quarterback like Jameis Winston, who is learning quickly on the job and showing off better decision-making both pre and post-snap with each passing week. Winston went from the guy who embarrassed himself in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans with dreadful decisions to a confident, poised, and accurate signal-caller who owns an 85.5 QB Rating with 7.6 yards per pass attempt on the season.
While Winston struggled with INTs to start the season, he’s had just three picks in the six games since the Buccaneers Week 6 bye. Winston’s increasing success as a passer, particularly when it comes to the mental side of the game, can be attributed to his underrated mental acumen, but Koetter probably had something to do with the fact that Winston’s improved decision-making came after the bye.
Nov 29, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) throws a pass against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Due to small sample size, we have to see more from Winston and the Bucs offense before making calls on just how much of an effect Koetter has had on the rookie signal-caller’s steady success.
Both coach and quarterback deserve praise for navigating key pass-catching injuries and a troubling lack of pass-catching depth.
Evans is a star (even if he’s drop prone) and V-Jax is still very effective despite his age, but the Bucs are left with a smattering of RB throws and high-percentage Cameron Brate check-downs if Winston isn’t taking a high-risk/reward throw to one of his two outside wideouts.
The Buccaneers offense has its limitations, but it has been able to help lead this team to a 5-6 record and in-season turn-around.
Winston and Martin deserve the most credit for this due to Martin’s 1,000-yard rushing work and the rookie passer’s ability to quickly learn, but Koetter is an important figure pulling the strings in the background.
Next: Where does Martin rank among best RBs?
There’s no doubt that having any sort of legitimate OC and upgrade at QB would help both Martin and the offense as a whole, but I’d say that Koetter has done better than your average OC, particularly when it comes to playing to the strengths of the players he’s been given.
Let’s just say that there’s a reason why he’s received head coaching interest in the past.
Then again, he’s also the guy who made this rather myopic statement about analytics.