Tampa Bay Buccaneers clear favorites if Alshon Jeffery out?

Today’s game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears will be filled with reunions, as the likes of Lovie Smith and Chris Conte will try to lead the Bucs to victory over a 5-9 Bears team that is also coming off of back-to-back losses.

Aiding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week is a massive injury blow to the Bears offense, though it’s one they have been dealt multiple times this year. According to the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, No. 1 wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is not expected to suit up for today’s 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff at Raymond James Stadium, and most people didn’t expect him to play either due to his doubtful listing on the injury report with a hamstring issue.

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These nagging injuries have to be frustrating for the Bears, because Jeffery has easily been one of the league’s most dominant players at any position when healthy this season. Jeffery’s 89.7 receiving yards per game puts him among the league leaders, and it would be closer to 100 than 90 if he didn’t miss snaps due to injury.

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Not having to face a player of Jeffery’s caliber would be huge for any team, but this injury comes as an especially strong relief to Smith and his Buccaneers defense. It’s no secret that the Bucs are ill-equipped to handling opposing passing attacks, as evidenced by the success both Case Keenum and Drew Brees had against them in their back-to-back losses. I mean, giving up a strong game through the air to a quarterback like Keenum is hardly ideal.

Jay Cutler could still have some success against the Buccaneers secondary this week, but that will be much harder to do without Jeffery’s services. Eddie Royal will, mercifully, be able to play despite his knee injury, but the Bears major offseason signing at WR has hardly looked like an ideal playmaker- let alone an ideal No. 1 receiver.

The Bears offensive cupboard isn’t barren, but it’s safe to say that it looks pretty dry as we head into today’s matchup. Rapoport’s report doesn’t guarantee that Jeffery will be inactive, but it’s difficult to see an oft-injured star playing through a doubtful tag after already missing five games so far this season.

With 25.2 points per game allowed and 6.6 net yards per pass attempt surrendered, the Buccaneers have a bottom-half-of-the-league pass defense that helps opposing offenses move the chains against them with ease. Without Jeffery to take advantage of their lack of star power as a secondary, the Bucs should be able to win this one.

Dec 13, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (17) practices before the game against the Washington Redskins at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Remember, the Bears defense is almost as bad as Tampa Bay’s, and they do a particularly awful job of stopping the run.

Against the elite Doug Martin and an underrated Charles Sims, that isn’t a winning formula.

Since the Bears offense probably won’t score a high amount of points with Jeffery out, their chances of forcing a shootout with Jameis Winston are lower, meaning that the Bucs can feed Martin as often as they’d like.

Since the Bears allow 4.6 yards per carry and the sixth-most rushing yards on the season, Martin could feast, allowing the balanced Bucs offense to roll at home, particularly with the insight that Winston plays much better when his team is able to run the ball more frequently.

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There’s a lot to like about this matchup from the Bucs perspective if Jeffery is indeed unable to play, and it’s an absence that can help mitigate the Buccaneers weaknesses on defense while re-enforcing their strengths on offense in a more indirect manner.