Indianapolis Colts: T.Y. Hilton carried the team, changed contract narrative

This past offseason, three superstar wide receivers- Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, and T.Y. Hilton– signed long-term deals, and the six-year, $65.5 million the Indianapolis Colts handed to Hilton was criticized more often than the other contracts.

Even though T.Y. Hilton had to deal with an extremely limited veteran quarterback for much of the season in Matt Hasselbeck and also caught passes from an injured Andrew Luck who clearly wasn’t himself, Ryan Lindley, and Josh Freeman, he still managed to haul in over 1,100 receiving yards. Since Bryant struggled due to injuries and even worse QB play and Thomas attracted criticism for drops, you could make the argument that Hilton had the best 2015 season of the three receivers.

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Pitting Thomas’s 2015 season against Hilton’s 2015 season would be an interesting exercise, but there’s little point in making the comparison, especially since Hilton isn’t making as much money as Thomas is. When both contracts were finalized, the understanding was that Thomas deserved to make more money but also that Hilton did well to net nearly $40 million in guaranteed cash.

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Despite some of the criticism that flew around before the season started, with much of it focused on the presence of young wideouts Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett,  Hilton has been well-worth the money so far for the Colts. Moncrief and running back Frank Gore played well this season, but Hilton was by far the Colts best player on offense. In fact, he was probably the team’s best player on either side of the ball, and this simply wouldn’t be a .500 team without Hilton.

How important was Hilton to the Colts this season? Well, let’s take a look at the numbers. Even though the Colts quarterbacks, for the most part, couldn’t deliver the ball vertically with consistency, Hilton still managed to finish as one of the league leaders with 16.3 yards per reception. Few players in the league are better at winning downfield than Hilton, who still managed to be one of the league’s premier playmakers despite playing in a much more conservative offense. You know, an offense that Hilton criticized for not being more aggressive downfield, though that was because they were forced to start Matt Hasselbeck.

The Colts quarterbacks finished the regular season with a paltry 6.4 yards per pass attempt, but Hilton still managed to average 8.4 yards per target, making him the offense’s most efficient receiver (and it really wasn’t close). Moncrief gave Hilton plenty of help with 103 targets and six receiving touchdowns of his own, but the Colts received nothing from veteran free agent bust Andre Johnson and rookie Phillip Dorsett, who should have better days ahead.

Hilton somehow remained one of the league’s top 20 receivers this past season despite playing on an offense that lacked any sort of big-play juice outside of him, and I can’t imagine that defenses feared anyone else on this Indianapolis offense. There’s no doubt that Hilton, who had 82 receptions in each of his previous two seasons, has always been the Colts top dog on offense, but in 2015, he was their only danger man. Again, Moncrief played well, but he was the talented possession guy and probably wouldn’t have been as successful without the star field-stretcher putting in work.

If you still have a subscription to Pro Football Focus’s “Signature Stats”, then I would highly recommend looking at their yards per route run leaderboard and sifting through the averages on the Colts roster. You’ll see that Hilton was clearly the team’s most efficient receiver on both a per-target and per-route run basis, emphasizing his importance to the team.

When big contracts are handed out, the question “How much does the team need this player?” is often asked as a way of evaluating the deal.

So in the aftermath of the Hilton contract, criticism of the deal focused on the fact that the Colts already have an ascending wideout in Moncrief and a talented first-round pick in Dorsett with a similar skill-set to Hilton’s.

But after watching just how much Hilton lifted the Colts offense this season with Luck out or struggling, the narrative has shifted significantly.

Now, it’s becoming clear that Hilton is indeed capable of carrying an offense as a No. 1 receiver with his ability to generate big plays repeatedly even without a quarterback possessing Luck’s tools.

I find it hard to fathom the fact that Hilton was one of just 17 players with at least 16 yards per reception, despite the fact that Hasselbeck averaged under 11.0 yards per completion.

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Additionally, Hilton led the Colts with 69 receptions and was one of just three players on the team with more than 50 receptions. Moncrief, Johnson, and Coby Fleener were the other team’s top targets, and all three of them averaged less than seven yards per target.

So, yeah, the Colts, who were 32nd in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt and 31st in yards per carry, would have been screwed without Hilton.