Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green will, and must, dominate
Once again, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green was one of the top players at the position, and if there’s one team he dominates more than anyone else, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A.J. Green will get a chance to add to his gaudy career numbers against Pittsburgh when the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Steelers on Saturday. ProFootballReference.com’s stats have the Steelers as favorites despite being on the road, giving them a 57% chance of winning, and it’s a reminder that the Bengals need their star players at the skill position to rise up with A.J. McCarron most likely getting the start at QB.
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With 86 receptions for 1,297 yards and a whopping ten touchdowns, Green is coming off of another excellent season, and the touchdowns, big plays, and Pro Bowl accolades keep rolling in for a player who has been a star since Day 1. The Georgia product has now averaged at least 80 receiving yards per game in four straight seasons, though he hasn’t hit 80 in any of the Bengals last three games.
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The last time Green had 80 receiving yards? Week 14 against the Steelers, in which he turned just six receptions into 132 yards and a touchdown. In fact, Green cleared 100 receiving yards in both of his games against Pittsburgh this season, carving them up for an 11/118/1 line back in Week 8 on the first of November.
Essentially, Green is a safe bet to swallow up seven passes, clear 100 yards, and snag a touchdown this week, even if he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with McCarron at quarterback. If Andy Dalton starts this week, Green would get a massive upgrade, but even if the Bengals don’t have their pre-injury NFL MVP candidate starting, I wouldn’t doubt the 27-year-old’s ability to match Antonio Brown (the best receiver in the game) in the numbers department.
In his ten career appearances against the Steelers, Green has scored a touchdown in more than half of them, and he averages about seven catches per game with 94 receiving yards per game against a team that has struggled to defend the pass over the last few seasons.
The Steelers struggles in pass defense haven’t changed this year, and while they are finding solid players in Ross Cockrell and trade acquisition Brandon Boykin, it’s hard to trust them against elite receivers. This season, as per Football Outsiders’s DVOA, the Steelers are the sixth-worst team in the NFL at defending No. 1 wideouts, allowing 86.9 receiving yards per game against these players.
Combine that average with Green’s 80+ average against all opponents this season and the fact that he hit triple digits in both of his regular seasons meetings against Pittsburgh, and you can see why he’s such a safe bet to have a monster game. He’s been as beastly as ever in the red zone, too, as evidenced by the touchdown he’s notched in each of his outings against the Steelers.
Just last week in a tune-up game against the rival Baltimore Ravens, we saw Green’s end zone brilliance on display. He only had 34 yards on four catches and five targets, but one of those catches was a five-yard touchdown in which he tooled on the Ravens defensive back covering him. We can expect repeat performances of this on Saturday, especially since I don’t see a corner on the Steelers with the size- or the vertical speed, but we’ll get to that- to match up with Green.
It isn’t just his work in the red zone that makes Green so scary, because he’s also been one of the league’s best playmakers on the outside over the past few years. After averaging 15.1 yards per reception in an excellent but injury-impeded 2014 campaign, Green has matched that 15.1 average this season.
That’s worrisome for the Steelers, because they are 26th in DVOA when defending deep passes. The Steelers defense is significantly better than it was in the first half of the season, so, again, this battle against the Pittsburgh secondary is one Green should and will have to dominate.
The Bengals will be an elite team in the AFC with a healthy Dalton, but they will need the likes of Green, Tyler Eifert, and Jeremy Hill to carry the day in winnable matchups this week.
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Hill’s strong Week 17 performance against Baltimore was particularly encouraging, but it is even more necessary for him to carry the positive momentum and follow that up. If Green can drop 100 on the Steelers again, then that will go a long way to helping Hill find a groove again.