Matt Forte Should Not Be an Option for the New York Jets
The New York Jets are likely to be in the market for a running back this off-season. Stevan Ridley will likely be gone, and either Bilal Powell or Chris Ivory will face the same fate. Matt Forte is on the free agent market, but despite his history, the Jets should not bring him in.
Matt Forte has been a top running back in this league for nearly a decade. He’s a two-time Pro Bowler, and has rushed for 1,000 yards in five out of eight seasons. He has also been a huge part of the passing game, averaging nearly 61 receptions per season. Forte has spent most of his career as a top-tier running back.
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Forte is also a free agent, as Jeremy Langford and friends ate into his carries. The New York Jets will be looking to add a running back this off-season. Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, and Stevan Ridley are all on the free agent market, and the team is not likely to keep them all. Should the Jets give Matt Forte a look?
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Our friends at The Jet Press took a look at this issue. Jason Rodriguez strongly believes the Jets should bring him in, you can read his article here. Take a look at it as he makes some great points.
However, I disagree, and believe that the Jets should stay away from Forte.
First, we cannot ignore Forte’s age. Forte will turn 31 in December, and running backs on the wrong side of 30 typically decline in production. Our all-time leader, Emmitt Smith, saw a decline in production after age 30, with his rushing yards declining every year until he saw his first sub 1,000 yard season since his rookie year. Even Barry Sanders, who retired at the height of his talent at only the age of 30, saw a significant drop in rushing production from age 29 to age 30. He posted over 2,000 yards when he was 29 years old, but in his final season, at age 30, only rushed for 1,491 yards.
There are countless other examples. Running backs begin a steady descent at the age of 30. Add that to the fact that he has had some injuries, and you truly have to be careful if you are looking at a free agent running back of this age.
Forte also has a lot of wear and tear on the tires. Between 2,035 carries, and 487 receptions, the soon to be former Chicago Bear was a major part of the Bears’ offense. When you consider bringing in a running back with that type of mileage, there are concerns. Tires wear down after they are used for a long time. Running backs wear down after being used, and a 30-year-old is not getting any younger.
Then, you have the money considerations. According to Over The Cap, Forte made a $7,050,000 base salary, and had a cap number of $9,200,000. I agree with Justin, if he were offered a contract, it would need to be one year only. But, what is that number going to be? Why would he take a significant pay cut? This is his last chance, at 30 years old, to get paid. What motivation would he have to do so?
A third down role would be appealing, but not necessarily to Forte. He was the lead dog in Chicago until last season, and may feel that he needs to show the world he can still do it. Is that a risk that the Jets should be taking at this point, when they might be better served drafting a running back.
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LaDainian Tomlinson was an exception, as was Curtis Martin. There are many more that followed the rule. Running backs fall off of the pace beginning at age 30. If the Jets want to look at a running back, they should do it elsewhere.
What do you think? Is Justin right? Am I totally off base? Should the Jets go after Matt Forte? Sound off in the comments…