The Denver Broncos have decided to pay Derek Wolfe top 5 money for the next four seasons as a 3-4 interior defensive lineman, but is he truly worth the money?
According to Andrew Mason of DenverBroncos.com the Broncos’ defensive end Derek Wolfe was awarded with a 4-year extension last Friday. The deal according to Ian Rapoport averages 9.175 million a year on average, which would make Wolfe the 6th highest paid 3-4 defensive end in the NFL based on data from Spotrac.
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This marks one of the first major steps in addressing the Broncos set to hit free agency in 2016. And every detail of the deal hasn’t been disclosed yet, but was it the right move?
Let’s find out as we first look at the remaining Broncos set to hit the market in 2016, and if Wolfe’s own talent and production is worth top 5 money at the 3-4 defensive end position.
2016 Denver Broncos Free Agency
The Broncos signing Wolfe solves one of eight major issues to deal with going forward. It’s unclear how much cap space the Wolfe contract will affect in 2016 yet, but the Broncos were already strapped for cash in 2016.
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They were ranked 19th overall in available cap space in 2016 according to Over The Cap with only 20, 413, 401 dollars available before the Wolfe signing. So now they might only have 11 million in cap space to sign Brock Osweiler, Danny Trevathan, Vernon Davis, Malik Jackson and Von Miller.
Cutting DeMarcus Ware and Peyton Manning will free up about 29 million in cap space, but it seems a little odd they would make Derek Wolfe their first move. And to pay him as much as they did.
To explain this a little more let’s get into his production and what his fair value might be.
Based on NFL market share data from 2005-2015 looking at solo tackle, sack and pass deflection statistics from Pro Stats Reference, Wolfe would have been the 10th most productive 3-4 defensive end if he played all 16 games in the 2015 regular season.
And the 13th most productive interior defensive lineman overall in 2015. Up to this point Wolfe hasn’t put up top 5 3-4 defensive end impact, nor top 5 interior defensive line impact in his career.
And the contract he signed puts him as the 6th highest paid 3-4 defensive end for the next four seasons from Spotrac data. Making this not only a overpay based on his proven performance, but a risky contract going forward into the future.
His fair value as the 10th most productive 3-4 defensive end in 2015 is about 5,000,000 a year based on the current market. And unless he produces at a much higher level consistently into the future, the Broncos will lose about 4,175, 000 in cap space that could have gone to more impactful players.
Wolfe also wasn’t even a top 10 3-4 defensive end for three straight seasons. He would have been a top 10 for only the 2015 season if he actually played all 16 games due to suspension, and that’s even more concerning because what are you going to do with Malik Jackson?
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Jackson who is also set to hit free agency in 2016 was the 5th most productive 3-4 defensive end in 2015, 8th in 2014 and 6th in 2013 based on total impact market share data. Malik Jackson has been the more consistent and productive player than Wolfe over the last three years.
Are the Broncos willing to pay Jackson top 5 money as well? Especially with the impending contracts of Von Miller and Brock Osweiler too.
It remains to be seen, and Wolfe may end up becoming a much more productive player into the future. However, this first move in addressing the impending 2016 Bronco free agents is not a safe first step.