Pittsburgh Steelers: Is Le’Veon Bell Gone After 2016?

For the Pittsburgh Steelers it might be hard to imagine but it also might be the reality they will be faced with about a year from now: Le’Veon Bell will be on a new team in 2017. Steelers fans must be asking, “Didn’t we just draft this guy?”

After a so-so rookie year, the former Michigan State Spartan bursted onto the scene in his second year as a pro back in 2014. He finished the season second in rushing yards (1,361) and second in total yards from scrimmage (2,215). Bell’s total yards from scrimmage in 2014 ranked 22nd in NFL history and just like that, Bell earned superstar status.

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Bell’s expected 2015 encore season hit a slight bump in the road when he was suspended for the first two games of the NFL season. That was for violating the NFL Substance Abuse Policy after he was arrested for a DUI and marijuana possession. It then took an immediate halt after he tore his right MCL in Week 8 against the Cincinnati Bengals. He was placed on season-ending injured reserve the following day.

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After 5.5 games in 2015, Bell was on pace for over 1,750 total yards from scrimmage and around eight touchdowns. At that rate, Bell would have finished the season with his second consecutive All-Pro selection.

Bell now enters the 2016 season in the fourth and final year of his rookie contract.

Salary Cap Issues

According to Spotrac, Pittsburgh have less than $7 Million in cap space. Only six other teams in the NFL have less money heading into the off-season than them. The salary cap is expected to rise and the Steelers can create more space by cutting players and restructuring the contracts of other players. However, they are going to face some tough decisions.

• WR Antonio Brown is not a free agent until 2018 but he is currently being paid like a top 12 wide receiver instead of a top 1-3 wide receiver. Brown has arguably been the best WR over the last three seasons and the Steelers will not let him get away. They are going to pay him and they are going to pay him big time before 2018.
• Guard David DeCastro will be a free agent in 2017. The former first round pick is coming off his first Pro Bowl and All-Pro selection.
• Linebacker Lawrence Timmons will be a free agent in 2017. Timmons will turn 31 before the start of the 2017 season so it might logical to let him walk. With that said, he has over 100 combined tackles in four out of the last five seasons and has not missed a game since 2009.
• DE Stephon Tuitt, WR Martavis Bryant and LB Ryan Shazier are all free agents in 2018. Extending one or multiple of these players might be more of a priority than re-signing Bell.

The DeAngelo Williams Effect

At the end of the 2014 season, Bell went down with an injury in Week 17 and missed the Steelers playoff game. In that playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens, the #2 offense in the NFL looked stagnant and lost. They only managed one touchdown in their 30-17 loss. When Bell went down for the season in Week 8 against the Bengals, there were some worries that the offense would take a major step back. Needless to say, free agent acquisition DeAngelo Williams put those worries to rest.

In nine full games as the Steelers starting RB, Williams averaged over 122 yards from scrimmage and over one touchdown per game. At that nine game pace, Williams would have gained over 1,950 total yards and nearly 20 touchdowns if he was the full time starter for the entire 16 game regular season.

Williams 907 rushing yards in 2015 was the most he has had since 2009. The 11 rushing touchdowns in 2015 was the most he has had since 2008. The 4.5 yards per carry that he averaged in 2015 was his best in a season since 2011.

Did the 32-year old veteran find a second wind in his 10th NFL season? Or was a he a product of the Steelers pass-heavy vertical offense?

A good argument would be a combination of Williams’ ability and the Steelers high-powered offense is what led to the Williams success in 2015. After all, not any RB can be plugged into the Steelers offense and find instant success. That was evident in the Steelers postseason games in 2014 and 2015.

Yet as Williams showed during the regular season, a top 3-5 RB is not a necessity in order to make this offense one of the best in the NFL.

Back to the Money

When Bell is healthy, he has shown to be one of the most versatile and capable running backs in the NFL. He arguably might one of the three best running backs in the NFL. Nobody would know that by looking at the current contracts around the league. According to Over the Cap, Williams is going to be paid less than guys like Roy Helu, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen and even his backup, DeAngelo Williams in 2016. When his rookie contract expires a year from now, he is going to want to be compensated like a top NFL running back.

Last off-season, RB DeMarco Murray signed a five-year $40 million contract with $18 million fully guaranteed.

Last off-season, the Bills agreed to a new five-year $40.05 million contract with $15.75 million in fully guaranteed with RB LeSean McCoy.

Consider these contracts to be the floor of Bell’s contract negotiations a year from now.

Do the Steelers really have the cap space to pay a top 3 QB, WR and RB?

A couple “What If” situations

If Bell stays healthy next year, he is going to be a 1,200 yard rusher and a Pro Bowler at the very least. If that happens, there will be at least one NFL franchise that will be willing to pay him like a top 3 NFL RB. If Bell is going to chase the money, the Steelers will not be able to re-sign him.

If Bell does not stay healthy and gets hurt just like in 2015, he could scare off some teams. The Steelers then might be able to sign him at a discounted price. Then again, if Bell suffers another season-ending injury, would it be wise to re-sign Bell?

In 2013, Bell missed three games with a foot sprain.

In 2014, Bell missed the Steelers one (and only) playoff game with a hyperextended knee.

In 2015, Bell missed two games due to a suspension. He then missed another 10.5 games (two being the playoffs) when he tore his MCL.

Including the playoffs, Bell has missed over 30% of the Steelers games since being drafted in 2013 and has one strike against him in the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Another mistake with marijuana and/or alcohol could result in a four-game suspension.

If the Steelers were able to find a suitable contract for Bell, would it be smart to invest money and a long-term contract into him?

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After all, the importance of the RB position has been diminishing over the last few years. Since 2013, players like Alfred Morris, Justin Forsett, Devonta Freeman, Chris Ivory and Thomas Rawls have made huge impacts in the NFL and not one of those guys were drafted in the first three rounds of their respected NFL Drafts. A couple of them were not even drafted at all.

Right now for the Steelers there are a lot of questions, uncertainty and not enough money. However, a lot can change in a little over a year.

Just don’t be surprised if Bell’s team colors and zip code are a couple of them.