Seattle Seahawks: Jermaine Kearse split inevitable
Fourth-year wide receiver Jermaine Kearse gave the Seattle Seahawks something to chew on, as he produced a career day in what could end up being his last performance in a Seattle uniform, catching ten passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns in a heroic, near-comeback effort against the Carolina Panthers in the divisional round.
Throughout his career, Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jermaine Kearse has looked like a decent No. 3 or No. 4 utility wide receiver who has great size and a massive catch radius, but his tendency to disappear in games or failure to create adequate separation have caused him to receive criticism in the past. Russell Wilson‘s trust in him and affinity for his aforementioned catch radius have been important, though, and Kearse seemed to put it all together at the right time against Carolina.
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It’s been a foregone conclusion that outside linebacker and talented pass rusher Bruce Irvin will leave this offseason (the Atlanta Falcons are the overwhelming favorite to sign him), but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the former West Virginia star is willing to take a hometown discount. Maybe it’s lip service from a player who might know he won’t be able to stay on the cap-conscious Seahawks, maybe it isn’t.
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What we do know is that, in that same Facebook post, Schefter relayed that Kearse will not take a hometown discount with Seattle. On the surface, this might be surprising, since Kearse seems to be the product of Wilson’s playing style and downfield accuracy.
However, it would be pretty crazy for Kearse to take a hometown discount from the Seahawks, because he doesn’t have room to take a discount. Set to be 26 in early February and coming off of what was easily his most productive season (he had career-highs across the board, including five touchdowns), this could be Kearse’s biggest payday.
More to the point, his biggest payday probably won’t amount to much either. Over The Cap sees a three-year deal worth around $9-10.5 million on the horizon for Kearse, who won’t be viewed as anything more than a third option around the league. In Seattle, he is indeed the No. 3 WR behind Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett, and Jimmy Graham will also be a big, catch radius-blessed target for RW3 in 2016, even if there’s no guaranteeing his health at this point.
Even though Kearse is the third wheel in the Seahawks passing attack, he has become an important one due to his hands, size, red zone ability, and downfield speed. He’s the most unique receiver on the Seahawks roster, which makes losing him hurt more than losing a backup WR would hurt most teams with Seattle’s talent across the roster.
Unfortunately for him, he also isn’t impossible to replace, and we saw the Seahawks have success with other big receivers in the past. Those receivers didn’t have the degree of production or show the type of ability Kearse does, but with Wilson at the helm, the drop-off might not be so severe.
However, the drop-off or ease of replacing Russell Okung, Brandon Mebane, and Jeremy Lane (the three biggest impending free agents on the Seahawks roster this offseason) is much less favorable. Since Baldwin and Lockett shined so profoundly last season for Seattle, these three players are standouts at positions that the Seahawks are thinner and less talented at.
Looking at the wide receiver contracts around the league right now, a $4 million deal seems realistic for Kearse, even if it is an overestimate in comparison to what OTC’s projection is. Greg Jennings, Andre Roberts, Harry Douglas, and Jarius Wright all make between $3.5 and $4 million per season on their deals, and all of those players, with the possible exception of Wright, are less effective receivers than Kearse is right now. It’s hard to project exactly how much he’ll make per season, but we could set something close to $4 million as a realistic yearly average on a three-year deal.
That’s money the cash-constrained Seahawks can’t afford to spend on a No. 3 receiver, no matter how different and important his skill-set is to this team.
He provided plenty of value to the Seattle offense last season and had an extremely efficient season, but it’s hard to explain away the “Russell Wilson Effect”, since the other two receivers on the roster were more impressive and just as efficient on a per-target basis.
Kearse deserves a role and a nice payday somewhere, but just look at the Seahawks other impending free agents. I’m sure they like Kearse and would want him back, but I just don’t see a way it happens, and it might not even be smart for them to work towards getting a deal done.
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I think Kearse would like to stay in Seattle, but it just isn’t fair for a player in his situation to take a hometown discount, especially since he quickly vaulted his stock with his performance against the Panthers.
The Seahawks need to focus on the likes of Okung and Lane instead, since they are better and more important players at more talent-scarce positions.