Houston Texans should not reach for a QB in 2016 NFL Draft
By Luke Sims
The Houston Texans are a quarterback away from a Super Bowl run, but even that shouldn’t cause them to reach for a quarterback of the future in the 2016 NFL Draft.
It can take years for a franchise to get to a point where it is capable to compete for a playoff spot and a division title year in and year out.
It can take even longer to do without a franchise quarterback in today’s NFL.
The Houston Texans have managed to be that competitive in recent years behind a strong running game and an even stronger defense. In 2015, the Texans managed to get into the playoffs mostly through the strength of their strong defense. Future years may not see the AFC South division be as easy to beat, limiting a team like the Texans from getting into the playoffs.
A 9-7 record, with a significant number of those wins against division competition, isn’t going to inspire people in the long run. It’s even less inspiring when you look at the horrific performance by quarterback Brian Hoyer in the playoffs (15 of 34 for 136 yards and four interceptions).
There is a lot of pressure to turn things around with a quarterback this offseason, but it would be unwise to rush into the decision and reach for a QB in the coming 2016 NFL Draft.
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Quarterback and running back are the top needs for the Texans this offseason and while some, like ESPN’s Tania Ganguli, would argue that it’s time they settled on a quarterback, I think it’s time the Texans realized the unique and difficult position they are in and tried to capitalize on it.
The Texans are a playoff team without a quarterback and their playoff window has been open for some time. Over the last five seasons, the window has been open. They had two double digit winning seasons under former head coach Gary Kubiak (now coach of the Super Bowl bound Denver Broncos), one terrible season at 2-14, and two 9-7 seasons in 2014 and 2015, the latter earning a playoff berth. How much longer will this playoff window remain open?
The playoff window, more than anything else, will likely dictate what the Houston Texans choose to do at the quarterback position.
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Drafting a young quarterback, even the most pro-ready of the bunch, doesn’t guarantee instant success. In fact, it almost guarantees growing pains for an offense that desperately needs to be at least borderline competent to keep the Texans in the playoff hunt. A young quarterback behind an offensive line that is moderately shaky (36 sacks in 2015) is not a recipe for success, at least not in the immediate future, which is critical for the Texans.
Meanwhile, bringing in competition at quarterback through free agency can help push Brian Hoyer (under contract through 2016) could help the latter exceed expectations. Further, it would bring in another quarterback who could start in case of a Hoyer regression. Ryan Mallett and Brandon Weeden clearly weren’t the answers in 2015, but there are a number of quarterbacks in free agency this offseason who would be upgrades as backups and possibly as starters. A player like Sam Bradford would be tempting, even if expensive.
At the end of the day, however, it is about getting the quarterback of the future in the 2016 NFL Draft. It just wouldn’t be wise to reach, especially if the logic behind it is to maintain the playoff window. The Texans need a quarterback who can win now and they could use a quarterback to groom behind that person. They don’t need a quarterback that can be thrust into the lineup on opening day. They don’t need a quarterback who will have a rookie season a la Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles.
The Houston Texans need to win now. Reaching for a quarterback in the first round and risking the fragile composition of a playoff roster to fill a need with a player who can’t be plugged into play immediately is not going to help the team in their current playoff window. Instead, it would behoove the Texans to patiently wait for a quality quarterback to fall into their laps where the value is better.
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After all, this is a playoff caliber team. They can afford to take the best player available through the draft.