Cincinnati Bengals: Is Marvin Jones about to make bank?

When the Cincinnati Bengals started the season 8-0, No. 2 wide receiver Marvin Jones was readily pinpointed as one of the unsung heroes of Andy Dalton‘s MVP-caliber season, as his and Tyler Eifert‘s returns to health helped Dalton jump from being a below-average QB, statistically speaking, to a star.

This offseason, the Cincinnati Bengals will have to mull over the impending free agencies of No. 2 and 3 receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, respectively, all the while keeping in mind the fact that safety George Iloka is their top priority. Since Adam Jones and Reggie Nelson are also set to hit unrestricted free agency, the Bengals will have a busy offseason ahead of them here in 2016.

Looking at the landscape of impending free agent wide receivers, it becomes clear that there aren’t many top options out there. In fact, outside of Chicago Bears explosive catch-magnet Alshon Jeffery, there isn’t a true star receiver set to hit impending free agency. Since the Bears are fully expected to keep Jeffery after already parting ways with Brandon Marshall in the previous offseason, Jones could conceivably be the best free agent WR available, though some could argue in favor of 2015 breakout star Rishard Matthews of the Miami Dolphins.

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Whatever the case, most people see Jones as the second-best impending free agent receiver in 2016 behind Jeffery, and that list of people includes the folks over at NFLTradeRumors.co, though they did rank Cleveland Browns receiver Travis Benjamin right behind him.

Last season, Jones caught 65 of 103 targets for 816 yards, averaging 12.6 yards per reception and slightly over 50 yards per game in the process. Those aren’t excellent numbers by any means, but they are solid, feeding into the idea that he is a quality No. 2 receiver in this league and could be even more effective in a larger role.

Prior to the injury that caused him to miss the entire 2014 season, Jones burst onto the scene in 2013 with a career-high 63.8% catch rate, 51 receptions, 712 yards for an average of 14.0 yards per catch, and a whopping ten touchdowns that turned him into a brief fantasy darling.

All of these numbers are worth praising, but I can’t shake off the feeling that if the Bengals don’t keep him around, he could be poised for an overpay. There are teams out there desperate for wide receiver help, such as the Detroit Lions, and fans of teams like the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots are already pining for Jones under the impression that he could come at a cheaper price since he isn’t a household name.

The problem is that all of this pre-free agency hype is turning him into a household name, and, more importantly, if Jeffery doesn’t hit the open market, it might not matter how good or how popular Jones is. If he’s the best receiver available, he’d be in a great position to be overpaid, and even though he’s money he deserves after earning just $565,700 last season, it’s important to be wary of his expected price tag. I mean, look at how much more appealing of an option he is in comparison to the likes of Rueben Randle, James Jones, and Jermaine Kearse (other impending free agent wide receivers this offseason).

Last offseason, veteran free agent busts Andre Johnson and Dwayne Bowe made $7 million and $6.5 million per season on the deals they signed, and while Jones is much younger and better than both players, it’s still a reminder that there’s risk in this market. More to the point, it’s a reminder that wide receivers don’t come cheap, and both Johnson and Bowe signed their deals in a more robust free agent class that included Torrey Smith and Jeremy Maclin.

Now that the wide receiver market has been set after T.Y. Hilton, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant all signed new contracts in a short period of time last summer, it might be more difficult for teams to find bargains outside of players undervalued for circumstances outside of their control (yes, I am talking about Michael Crabtree in this case).

Jones is a very good receiver, but recall that even Eddie Royal signed a deal worth $5 million per year that had two-thirds of it guaranteed. Since Jones is better and could be the top FA WR available, it follows that he’ll make considerably more money.

Would you feel comfortable spending $7 or even $8 million per season on Jones? Because that’s how high his price tag could climb. Maybe it won’t reach the latter region, but when you factor in other important details such as guaranteed money, Jones won’t be cheap. If the Bengals don’t keep him around, he could be rolling in dough as part of a bidding war.

Jan 3, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Marvin Jones (82) against the Baltimore Ravens at Paul Brown Stadium. The bengals won 24-16. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /

Remember, Smith’s deal with the San Francisco 49ers is worth $8 million per season but included just $8.75 million in guarantees. I wonder exactly what Jones will be shooting for, since he could use this deal as a measuring stick.

Both are different styles of player and Jones would undoubtedly want more guaranteed money, but maybe he look for between $7 and $8 million per season with 30-40% of his contract being guaranteed.

Of course, teams might not be as pressured as we think they will be, and OverTheCap.com offered four years and $16-17.5 million as Jones’s expected price tag this offseason.

That seems reasonable, but I think it’s too low; some team will pay more, especially if Jeffery fails to hit the free agent waters, making Jones’s free agent prospects mostly contingent on what transpires in Chicago.

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I will be surprised if he doesn’t make more than $6 million per season, and I could see him earning $7 million per year, depending on the situation. The Browns seem like an intriguing spot for him, especially when you consider the Hue Jackson factor there.

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