The Miami Dolphins are in the unenviable position of having two legitimate cornerstone players set to hit the free agent market this offseason, as both Lamar Miller and Olivier Vernon are among the best players at their respective positions and were arguably the best players on either side of the ball for Miami in 2015 (Ndamukong Suh has something to say about giving Vernon this distinction).
It seems like Miller’s time with the Miami Dolphins will be up, because even though the team needs him to be their feature back going forward, it’s hard to see the new coaching staff being able to convince him to stay. A real commitment to the running game would do wonders for both the Dolphins and Miller, but since the team seems to be high on solid 2015 draft pick Jay Ajayi as a starter, defensive end Olivier Vernon looks like the team’s biggest offseason priority.
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Edge rushers make bank when they hit the open market, and judging by NJ Advanced Media’s Eliot Shorr-Parks’s statement that Fletcher Cox could make over $50 million in guaranteed money from the Philadelphia Eagles, defensive linemen of all types are in high demand.
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Vernon hitting free agency would be massive, and the hype around him, particularly from fans of DE-needy teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, is a reminder of why Jason Pierre-Paul never saw the light of free agency last year. Teams like to keep impact pass rushers at all costs, and Vernon’s status as one of the league’s best ends in the 2015 season makes him a marquee player for this organization.
With capable backup Derrick Shelby set to hit free agency and Cameron Wake getting older with a season-ending injury on the account, Vernon’s value has shot up even more. He took perfect advantage of his situation last season, as he stepped in beautifully as the team’s main pass rushing threat with Wake injured. Vernon had “only” 7.5 sacks, but he consistently knifed his way into the backfield for pressure, provided solid run defense, and made sure to benefit from Ndamukong Suh’s unsung work at the heart of the Dolphins line.
A “homegrown” player who was selected in the third round of the 2012 draft, the former Miami Hurricanes star has been a solid threat in each of the past three years. One reason why the Dolphins gave Ryan Tannehill a fat contract last offseason was because they were extremely encouraged by his year-to-year progress, and, well, Vernon has done exactly that at the defensive end position.
Although Vernon’s career year couldn’t have come at a better time, especially since Wake was dominant before his injury, for him to make serious bank this offseason, that is precisely why some fans are worried. There’s a quiet belief that while he’s a good player, he will be overpaid on the strength of what he did due to the motivation of a contract year.
If I were the Dolphins, I would be willing to take the risk. Beyond the fact that keeping Vernon would make a statement that the Dolphins want to keep impact players who are “homegrown”, he is still an ascending player at just 25. It isn’t inconceivable to think that he truly has broken out from a “good” starter to a true star in this league, as his excellent form in the second half of the 2015 season was merely a progression of the ability he showed in his second and third seasons.
The Dolphins already have big questions on their defense and need to add more defensive playmakers, as opposed to missing out on a player who is one of their three best players overall.
Vernon is likely looking at the landscape of impending free agent DEs (Robert Ayers, William Hayes, Eugene Sims, Jason Pierre-Paul, Greg Hardy, Jeremy Mincey, and Shelby) and thinking, “Gee, these guys are good, but I’m the best one of them with the most upside,” meaning that he’ll indeed gun for- and get- serious dough.
So it might be nearly impossible for Miami to re-sign Vernon before free agency options, and instead of being left holding the bag with just an aging (but still great) Wake and potentially a re-signed Shelby, they could safely guarantee another year of greatness at the DE position from Vernon by slapping him with the franchise tag.
Unfortunately, the franchise tag for defensive ends last season was $14.78 million, and the Dolphins don’t exactly have much room to maneuver with the salary cap. That puts the impetus on Miami to get a real, long-term deal done without the ability to use the franchise tag to buy some extra time.
I would avoid saying that the Dolphins should keep Vernon “at all costs” due to the risk involved and the fact that they’ve already spent huge money on Suh, but Vernon is someone they need to hold onto.
The trepidation with regards to overpaying him is very real, but what’s more sweat-inducing for Miami is the idea that they might not be able to fit him under the cap if they don’t grossly overpay him before he hits the free agent waters.
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Despite how great it would be for the Dolphins to hold onto a young, productive edge rusher with close ties to Miami, I can’t shake off the feeling that they won’t be able to keep him.
The prevailing sentiment is that if he hits the free agent market, he’s gone, and the Dolphins would really have to pony up the money and maybe do some cap navigated in order to prevent that from happening.