Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doug Martin has great opportunity in free agency
Last offseason, we saw DeMarco Murray walk away with a king’s ransom from the Philadelphia Eagles before proceeding to stink up the joint, and this has naturally led some to be wary about Tampa Bay Buccaneers impending free agent Doug Martin and Miami Dolphins young back Lamar Miller.
Of those two backs, Doug Martin is in the more interesting situation heading into the new league year, because he’s put together two of the best seasons by a running back over the past few years. However, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beloved “Dougernaut” also struggled through two inefficient, injury-plagued seasons in which he averaged just 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry, respectively.
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I am among those confident in Martin’s ability to be a star feature back for whichever team he plays for in 2016, because his two poor seasons stemmed from a nightmarish combination of injuries, rubbish coaching/coordinating, unworkable quarterback play, and anemic blocking. No running back, save for perhaps future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson and recently retired Seattle Seahawks legend Marshawn Lynch, could have succeeded under those parameters, so nobody should have been surprised by Martin’s issues.
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After all, it only took a legit quarterback in rookie Jameis Winston and a competent offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter to help coax another 1,400-yard campaign from Martin. Forget about just running backs, Martin was one of the best players in the NFL, churning out a whopping 4.9 yards per carry on a workhorse’s load of 288 rushing attempts. Koetter publicly believed in Martin prior to the start of the season, and he rode him to a season so encouraging on the offensive side of the ball that it earned the former Atlanta Falcons OC a promotion at the expense of Lovie Smith losing another head coaching gig.
Earlier this week, the Tampa Bay Times’s excellent Greg Auman tweeted that it will take more than $6-7 million annually for the Buccaneers to keep Martin from hitting the open market. I wrote earlier this month that the Buccaneers can’t risk losing Martin this offseason, since it’s hurt the stability they’ve built around Jameis. Moreover, if the Bucs can land a true slot receiver, they could have a juggernaut offense on their hands with Koetter coaching, Winston throwing passes, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson on the outside, and the amazing 1-2 punch of Martin and Charles Sims.
Although Martin did say that he would like to remain with the Buccaneers, we saw a report surface from the Tampa Bay Times’s reliable Rick Stroud that the former first-round pick out of Boise State wants to “hit the jackpot” after roaring back onto the scene in extraordinary fashion last year.
If you look at the top running back contracts on OverTheCap.com, you’ll see that Martin has a real opportunity to make bank, and it seems like he does indeed have a superb shot at netting $7 million per season. Jonathan Stewart signed a deal worth $7.3 million per year and Jamaal Charles a deal worth nearly $7 million, but there’s a huge drop-off after that all the way down to New York Giants third-down back Shane Vereen, who signed a deal worth $4.1 million each year last offseason after playing a key role in the New England Patriots Super Bowl win.
Is Martin somewhere in that range of numbers, or is he destined to make more money on the open market? If he hits, there will be questions about his ability to put together back-to-back strong seasons for the first time in his career, but there could also be a bidding war for his services. Remember, he’s a well-rounded back who can play on all three downs, he’s had two hands-down elite seasons at the position, he can run in between the tackles, he can break off chunk runs, he was consistent on every carry last year, and he does an exceptional job of making defenders miss.
Martin’s chances of a big deal in free agency could be impacted by Miller’s future, since there’s still a chance the Miami Dolphins could coax him back after criminally under-utilizing him in 2015.
With the salary cap rising and with Martin headed for what will be his final big payday in this league, he has a golden opportunity to land the “jackpot” he reportedly covets.
He could end up striking out badly if teams are leery of signing Martin to a big contract after Murray’s horrific 2015, and there’s a chance the market could be sour on him if teams go much harder after Miller.
That said, I have a feeling teams won’t lump Murray and Martin in the same boat, and feature backs are starting to be re-emphasized again, as evidenced by the first-round selections of Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley last year.
Now, maybe free agent RBs aren’t as highly valued as cheap, explosive rookies with elite traits, but Martin has shown on two separate occasions that he’s the type of player you can build a team around.
Since the franchise tag is highly unlikely, if the Bucs don’t give Martin what he wants, he has a great chance to do what many players dream of doing; setting the market at their position.
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This isn’t as lucrative for a running back as it would be for, say, a wide receiver or pass-centric defensive player, but it is still an exciting chance for Martin to reel in $7-8 million per season.
As a way of managing risk, he’ll likely only receive about a three-year contract (perhaps four, depending on how the total value and guarantees shake out), as teams would like to avoid a Murray situation.