New York Jets: Matt Forte Is a Boom or Bust Move

On Wednesday, the New York Jets signed Matt Forte to bolster their running attack. Was that the correct decision?

The opening of free agency and not having much room under the salary cap are not a good mix. The feeding frenzy has begun and the New York Jets have seen some key players say goodbye. Dom Cosentino reported for NJ.com that Chris Ivory has migrated to Jacksonville, and Dan Graziano of ESPN noted that Damon Harrison is staying in town but switching uniforms, signing with the New York Giants.

The Jets found their Ivory replacement, as first reported by Adam Schefter of ESPN, with Matt Forte signing a contract to join the team. According to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, the contract is for three years at $12 million with $8 million guaranteed. The signing has gotten an approval of the majority, including Russell Baxter and Maurice Moton here at NFL Spin Zone.

It may be a great move. I’m just not so convinced.

Forte has had a wonderful NFL career. That is not in dispute. He’s toaled 8,602 yards rushing over eight seasons (an average of 1,075 yards per season) which is no small feat. He has carried the Bears’ offense for the balance of his career. If he hadn’t missed games in 2015, he may have rushed for 1,000 yards yet again.

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His ability to catch passes is unquestioned, as he has been one of the best in the business over the last several years. Just look at his record-setting season of 2014 when he posted 102 receptions, the most ever by a running back.

But, there is another side here. The fact is that Forte has hit the magic age of 30 years old, which is arguably the turning point for most NFL running backs. The production of running backs at this age goes in the other direction. Forte’s production, though consistent, is already on the downturn. Let’s take a look at the last three years of his career.

In 2013, he ran the ball 289 times for 1,339 yards and nine touchdowns, a 4.6 yards per carry average. The next year, although he did catch 102 passes, he ran it 266 times for 1,038 yards and six touchdowns, a 3.9 yards per carry average. He wasn’t hurt, he played all 16 games. A drop of .7 yards per carry is a significant drop. Last year, in only 13 games, his average went back to 4.1 yards per carry, but that is still .5 yard less than 2013, and .8 yards less than his best year of 2011.

This is not a prediction that the numbers will go downhill. They already are headed that way.

Nov 22, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; Former San Diego Chargers running back Ladainian Tomlinson waves to the fans before the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports /

Now, Jets’ fans look back to the 2010 acquisition of LaDainian Tomlinson as a parallel. Tomlinson came to the Jets after looking like he was finished in San Diego, dropping to a 3.3 yards per carry average in his final year. With the Jets, he rebounded to lead the team in 2010 with 914 rushing yards and bolstering his average back up to 4.2 yards per carry, nearly a full yard better.

Remember, “LT” did not leave the Chargers on great terms. He didn’t feel he was finished, and felt like he was pushed out of town. He had great motivation to prove the Chargers wrong and return to form. Forte and the Bears parted amicably. Both value the time they spent together, and wish the other side well. Forte will not have the same motivation.

Forte is still a strong asset in the passing game, but the Jets won’t be focusing on that aspect of his game. They will be focusing on replacing Ivory’s 247 carries. Now, Forte’s rushing stats from 2014 are very similar to those of Ivory from last year. However, Matt was on a downtrend, while Ivory posted career highs. He is 27, while Forte is 30. Had they acted faster, they could have kept their younger option, rather than investing in an older player that is trending downward.

More nfl spin zone: Assessing Forte's Potential Role

Forte might be just the guy to replace Ivory and return to form in the Green and White. But, looking at the numbers, there is evidence that it may not happen. It could be a great move, but it also could be an epic failure.

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