2016 NFL Draft: Carson Wentz an Overrated Prospect
Some teams are so desperate for a quarterback that they’ll overvalue players at the position. That man this year in North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. He is not NFL ready and will likely be thrown into the fire way too early.
Every year there are a ton of players that are overvalued by NFL scouts. No position sees an inflation in draft stock quite like the quarterback. The majority of teams near the top of the draft are often searching for their franchise quarterback and are willing to reach to get one.
This year’s most overrated prospect is quarterback Carson Wentz out of North Dakota State. After a strong Senior Bowl week and NFL Scouting Combine, he has climbed draft boards and is now considered the top QB prospect and a top five pick by a ton of scouts, experts and analysts in the 2016 NFL draft.
While I don’t love any of this year’s quarterback prospects as high first-round picks, Wentz is definitely being overhyped.
There are a number of reasons he’s being so highly coveted. As I mentioned before, his position almost automatically enhances his value. Since 1998, 13 of 18 first-overall picks have been quarterbacks and during that span, only twice (2013 and 2000) has a QB not been selected with a top-three pick. It’s unfathomable to believe that a quarterback is actually the best player available that often.
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Wentz also looks the part. At 6’5″ and 237 pounds with a long frame he has the prototypical look of an NFL quarterback. When you add decent arm strength and strong athleticism, he immediately checks a ton of boxes NFL teams are looking for.
He also has some experience in a pro-style offense and has shown the versatility to play both under center and in the shotgun. These are excellent traits, but he also severely lacks experience. Wentz only has one full season as a starter under his belt. In 2014, he attempted 358 passes and posted a strong stat line of 3,111 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Unfortunately, during his senior season he broke his wrist and missed more than half the season after undergoing surgery. With that said, he’s only started 22 games and 21 of them were against FCS teams. The only FBS team he faced was Iowa State and he only tallied 204 yards and zero touchdowns.
If this was even a decade ago, this might be okay. However, now-a-days high draft picks are expected to perform pretty much immediately and if after a few years you haven’t lived up to expectations, it’s next man up. Conversely, if you have one solid stretch of games teams will just throw money at you. That’s why we see teams looking to dump guys like Colin Kaepernick and recently even Matt Flynn who only had one good game. This is a win-now, what have you done for me lately league.
Even a guy like Ryan Tannehill, who was billed as a physically gifted project, is largely considered to be overdrafted at eighth overall despite spending the majority of his pre-NFL career as a wide receiver and showing significant improvement over the course of his career.
He’s also had below-average receivers and has never had an offensive line, which has led to a league-high 149 sacks over the past three years. But no one cares about that and that’s what comes with being drafted so high.
Aside from sub-par competition, Wentz also has other glaring issues. As I mentioned before, his arm strength is just decent and his downfield accuracy is not good. He also has a bad tendency to decide on a target pre-snap and stare him down. His ability to use his eyes as a weapon is not only lacking, but a detriment and he’s below average on timing routes. This also leads to him throwing the ball into tight coverage and allowing passing windows to close up. He’s thrown 14 interception in his 22 starts.
On top of his 14 interceptions, he’s also fumbled 10 times over the past two seasons. A major reason for this is his reliance on his athleticism and he’ll run himself into trouble. He also tends to run out of the pocket prematurely and struggles to throw when running to his left. His athleticism can be a great strength if he uses it wisely like a guy like Russell Wilson, however, if he doesn’t change his mentality in the pros it will become a major issue or he’ll get injured.
It’s not that he can never develop into a strong NFL quarterback. I’d love his upside as a second-round pick. Nevertheless, he’s probably going early in the first round and it may lead to his ultimate downfall. Wentz is a guy that needs to be treated similarly to a quarterback like Brock Osweiler.
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When you’re drafting that high, you are rarely afforded that luxury. Hopefully for his sake he lands in a place like Dallas, where he can sit behind Tony Romo for a while. If he lands somewhere like the Cleveland Browns or San Francisco 49ers, it could be a nightmarish situation for him. Either way, in today’s NFL a quarterback that can’t start year one and have you be a Super Bowl contender by year three is not worthy of a high first-round pick.