Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 is NOT the Year to Draft a QB
By Dan Thomas
Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. It’s not an elite pass-rusher. It’s not a “shutdown” cornerback. It’s not a blindside tackle. It’s a quarterback.
With that said, the Pittsburgh Steelers should not draft a quarterback in this week’s NFL Draft. There are a couple of reasonable arguments that backup the notation the Steelers SHOULD draft a quarterback in 2016 but now it’s time to dispute those arguments.
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Argument No. 1: The Steelers need to draft Ben Roethlisberger‘s heir apparent and get ready for the future. They should draft a player in the second or third round.
Rebulte: Yes. Yes, they do. Just not this year.
Since Big Ben was drafted back in 2004, the team has never experienced a losing record. In that time, the Steelers have had eight playoff appearances, five division titles, three Super Bowl appearances, and two Super Bowl victories.
Roethlisberger will enter 2016 at 34-years old and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that Steelers GM Kevin Colbert believes Big Ben has three-four years left in him. If that’s the case, lets look at the possible scenarios that could take place if the Steelers draft a quarterback this year in the second or third-round.
Scenario One: Roethlisberger retires after four years.
A player drafted this year in either the second or third round (basically every round except the first) would be a free agent the same season Big Ben retires. After what the NFL witnessed this off-season with Brock Osweiler and the Denver Broncos, there’s no guarantee the quarterback would re-sign with the Steelers in 2020.
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Not to mention, this is assuming the quarterback shows progression and promise over those four years. There are plenty of cases of second or third-round quarterbacks who have totally flopped in the NFL. Brian Brohm, Jimmy Clausen, Ryan Mallett, and Geno Smith are a few quarterbacks that come to mind.
Scenario Two: Big Ben doesn’t retire in four years because he has five good years left in him.
Then the Steelers would be faced with a possible Jimmy Garoppolo and New England Patriots situation.
Garoppolo, who was a second-round pick in 2014, has two years left in his rookie contract. Yet, starting quarterback Tom Brady looks like he has three-five good years left in him. It likely Garoppolo will sit behind Brady until his contract is up in 2017 season but doubtful he’ll re-sign with the Patriots after that. Instead, he’ll go elsewhere looking for a place to start. As a result, the Patriots virtually wasted a second-round pick on him.
Scenario Three: Roethlisberger retires after three years
In this case, the draft pick would hopefully be ready to rock and roll and take over the Steelers offense in 2019. The Steelers wouldn’t skip much of a beat and would dominate the AFC North for the next decade.
Personally, this scenario is not likely as it stands today because Roethlisberger hasn’t shown any decline. With recent quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Brett Favre playing so well into their late 30’s, there’s no reason why Big Ben can’t do the same.
In short: Every year Roethlisberger enters the season as the Steelers starting quarterback, they have a reasonable shot at winning the Super Bowl. Do not waste a valuable draft pick on a player so he can sit on the bench for multiple seasons. The Super Bowl window is open for the Steelers and they need to draft players that can come in and contribute on game day right now.
Argument No. 2: The Steelers need to draft Ben Roethlisberger’s heir apparent and get ready for the future. They should draft a player in the fourth-round or later.
Rebuttal: Drafting a quarterback in the later rounds is a complete waste of time. Sorry but it is.
Here’s a spoiler alert: You’re never going to find, “the next Tom Brady” in this year’s draft class or any other. Here’s a list of the of the top-15 “best” quarterbacks drafted in the fourth round or later since 2001 in no particular order:
Luke McCown, Bruce Gradkowski, Tyler Thigpen, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton, Matt Flynn, Tyrod Taylor, David Garrard, A.J. Feeley, T.J. Yates, Kirk Cousins, AJ McCarron and Seneca Wallace
These are the best of the best out of 108 qualifying quarterbacks over the last 15 NFL Drafts. Maybe Kirk Cousins can be the longterm answer for the Washington Redskins. Maybe Tyrod Taylor can be the longterm answer for the Buffalo Bills. Yet, neither are a sure-thing right now.
Bottom Line: If a team wants a quarterback who is drafted in the fourth-round or later to become the face of their franchise now or later, it’s unrealistic and irresponsible thinking.
Argument No. 3: The Steelers don’t need a quarterback for the future but they do need a solid backup quarterback.
Rebuttal: Yes. Yes, they do, but they already have one.
This might be an unpopular opinion for Steelers fans but they have a reliable backup quarterback in Landry Jones.
Yes, Jones’ time with the Steelers has been less than underwhelming.
Jones started the 2015 season as the third-string quarterback behind Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Vick. When Roethlisberger got hurt against the St. Louis Rams in Week 4, he was then promoted to second-string.
He was then promoted to first-string during Week 6’s game against the Arizona Cardinals after Vick suffered an injury.
In that game, Jones went 8 of 12 for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. That was against the eighth-best passing defense in 2015.
Jones went on to start the next week against the Kansas City Chiefs and went 16 for 29, 209 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. That was against the ninth-best passing defense in 2015.
Landry Jones finished the regular season with seven appearances and two starts for 32 for 55, 513 yards, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
It’s not great or good by and means. Yet, for a 26-year old (at the time) who was never higher than third on the Steelers depth chart until September of 2015, he wasn’t horrible.
Now he goes into 2016 with the most NFL playing experience under his belt and for the first time in his career, he will now get all the second-string reps instead of players like Mike Vick and Bruce Gradkowski.
Argument: Um…you saw Landry Jones in the playoffs against the Bengals right?
Rebuttal: You had to go there didn’t you?
Okay. Let’s be honest
It was bad.
Real bad.
When Big Ben was injured in the AFC Wildcard game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Landry Jones was brought into the game.
He went 2 for 5, 11 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception and 1 sack.
It was ugly.
Scratch that.
His game against the Bengals was more like Ugly’s, ugly cousin who has a “nice personality”.
It was hideous.
Yet, AJ McCarron looked like a viable NFL starting quarterback since taking over for the injured Andy Dalton in 2015. In that same playoff game against the Steelers he was 23 for 41, 212 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception and 3 sacks.
In comparison, McCarron went 79 for 119, 854 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in seven games for the Bengals during the regular season.
There’s a reason the game ended with the final score of 18-16.
The reason being the weather conditions were terrible and it was the main reason why both teams could not generate any offense in the game.
Yes, it’s an excuse but it’s a valid one.
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Landry’s performance against the Bengals was the lasting impression he left Steelers fans with but it isn’t an accurate depiction of his ability to be an NFL quarterback.
Not to mention, if Big Ben were to go down with injury in 2016 (knock on wood) who would you trust more? Landry who has been in the NFL for three years or a rookie quarterback who is still getting acclimated to the NFL?