New Orleans Saints: Coby Fleener's breakout a lock?

Everyone likes to talk about the New Orleans Saints skill position players surrounding Drew Brees, because there’s always fantasy upside whenever the most accomplished high-volume passer in NFL history is involved.

After Brandin Cooks blew up in his second season with Willie Snead accomplishing solid numbers as his second fiddle, all eyes are on the newcomers in the New Orleans Saints offense. Many have already given up on the idea of C.J. Spiller being a Darren Sproles-like factor for this team, though Sean Payton is doing his best to resuscitate the positive vibes, so this year’s additions in Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas are the new sweethearts in town.

An underrated athlete and accomplished route-runner in college, Thomas received heaping dollops of praise from me throughout the spring. Snead is a quality receiver, but is he better than Thomas? Probably not, and the difference in ability could manifest itself as quickly as this upcoming season. Brandon Coleman is not a bad receiver and has easily outperformed his UDFA tag, but there’s an opportunity for a decisively upgraded three-WR set in New Orleans, especially with team legend Marques Colston gone.

Though I was quick to preach the Thomas gospel this offseason, I have even more reason to believe that Fleener is the player to bet on for a 2016 explosion in the Saints offense, which led the NFL in passing yards and first downs last year.

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The fantasy community has already taken notice, because Fleener’s the seventh TE off of draft boards right now, putting him ahead of players like Zach Ertz, Julius Thomas, Gary Barnidge, Antonio Gates, and fellow free agent signing Ladarius Green.

It makes a ton of sense. Say what you want about Fleener’s propensity for drops, his subpar blocking, or the fact that Ertz and Barndige easily outplayed him last season. Fantasy is all about opportunity, and Fleener is in great hands in New Orleans, even if his own hands are a bit rocky.

Dec 21, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) gestures after a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Detroit Lions at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Lions won, 35-27. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports /

Because ultimately, the Saints don’t give an Atlanta Falcons pass rush about Fleener’s blocking or hands. You think the Saints valued Jimmy Graham for his blocking? And if the Saints were so worried about his hands, they wouldn’t have thrown $18 million in guaranteed money at a player who has never been a top ten tight end…at least not yet.

I’ve never been a big fan of Fleener’s game, but even I can see the signs. Fleener has never caught less than 50 passes since his rookie season, so while he’s never been a breadwinner, he’s also never had a “lost” season.

More importantly, when Fleener was a third-year pro, he was one of the most profound playmakers at the tight end position. The former Stanford star turned his 51 receptions into 774 yards and eight touchdowns, an average of over 15 yards per catch. He couldn’t even break 10.0 YPR last year, but that has much more to do with the Andrew Luck to Matt Hasselbeck downgrade. Sure, Fleener’s catch rate in 2014 was low, but he was a playmaker who averaged 8.41 yards per target. Worth it.

Aug 23, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts tight end Coby Fleener (80) catches a pass in the end zone for a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /

I always find it funny when people talk about how a tight end will breakout in a Norv Turner offense, because the most TE-friendly offense in the league is New Orleans’s. Maybe that’s belittling Ben Watson‘s accomplishments a little bit, but we never really got to witness a Saints TE suddenly blossom, since we’ve come to acknowledge Jeremy Shockey and Graham as obvious stars.

Watson posted similar numbers in his first season with the Cleveland Browns back in 2010, but it’s more than a little ridiculous to see a 35-year-old tight end post clear career highs in receptions (74) and yards (825) with six touchdowns. This came after Watson had a combined 39 catches in his first two seasons with the Saints, so the seamless production after an ostensibly huge downgrade in talent from Graham to Watson was downright shocking.

If Watson can catch 74 passes for 825 yards and 6 TDs, then why can’t Fleener post elite TE number? It sounds crazy to some, but think about how crazy it was for Watson to have experienced such a pronounced jump in production.

Remember, the last time Fleener had a great quarterback throwing it to him in an aggressive, high-volume offense, he was the sixth-highest scoring tight end in fantasy. The numbers Fleener achieved in 2014 for the Indianapolis Colts get overlooked, but they represent excellent production at the position.

Scarily enough, that could be Fleener’s floor in 2016. Normally, I would add “if he stays healthy”, but seeing as how he hasn’t missed a single game in the last three seasons, good fortune on the injury front has been commonplace for the 6’6″, 251-pound “move” TE.

In the past, I’ve been critical of Fleener for being overrated, but while he has deficiencies, the fact of the matter is that the league is trending towards an emphasis on playmaking tools at the tight end position. Based on what we’ve seen from him throughout his career, particularly in his mini-breakout 2014, that’s what he provides, and nothing is more valuable to the Saints.

Just look at how Brees himself, as per the New Orleans Times Picayune’s Christopher Dabe, gushed at how the former Colts TE was able to work himself open. That’s athleticism, that’s stretching the seam, and that’s what makes a TE with Fleener’s size, strength, intelligence, and filthy 4.52 wheels a real catch in the Saints offense.

An ADP placing him at seventh at tight end isn’t unreasonable either, because, again, he was sixth at TE in 2014 with Dwayne Allen stealing targets (and matching Fleener’s eight touchdowns) from him. If Brees’s praise is any indication (ignoring the fact that the price the Saints paid for a five-year deal is the strongest vote of confidence), the Saints see “breakout” in flashing neon.

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New Orleans Saints: Coby Fleener’s huge breakout a lock?

By Kevin Parvizi | Jun 20, 2016

Everyone likes to talk about the New Orleans Saints skill position players surrounding Drew Brees, because there’s always fantasy upside whenever the most accomplished high-volume passer in NFL history is involved.