Marcus Mariota had a surprisingly pleasant rookie season for the Tennessee Titans in 2015 and could use that first year’s experience to vault into the top-10 in 2016.
Ranking quarterbacks is tough. Outside of the top five or six, there isn’t a definitive list of quarterbacks and just how good they actually are. Ask any expert and they are bound to give you a different ranking.
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For Marcus Mariota, who just finished his rookie season in the NFL, it’s clear that he is “ahead of schedule” in development as a professional quarterback but that doesn’t mean his first season was a resounding success. There were positives to be sure, but he didn’t consistently stand out among his quarterback peers.
Posting a 62.2 completion percentage (20th in the NFL), 5.1 percent of attempts resulting in a touchdown (15th in the NFL), 2.7 percent of attempts resulting in an interception (27th in the NFL), 7.6 yards per attempt (11th in the NFL), 12.3 yards per completion (tied for 7th in the NFL), and just 234 yards per game, Mariota’s rookie season was a bit of a mixed bag. Most importantly, he flashed the potential for greatness.
With just 12 games under his belt, there’s a small sample size to judge Mariota off of. The flashes, however, indicate that his 12-game baseline will be improved upon going forward. It isn’t the worst rookie year to build off of (just ask Blake Bortles) and he can quickly ascend as one of the better passers in his second year.
Assuming at least mild improvements across the board (and likely a much improved interception percentage) as well as a full 16-game schedule, Mariota could find himself among much more established peers in just his sophomore season.
Building off of Pro Football Focus’ ranking of 2015 quarterbacks, Mariota would have to beat out the following quarterbacks in order to be among the top 16:
- Carson Palmer
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Tom Brady
- Cam Newton
- Russell Wilson
- Drew Brees
- Andy Dalton
- Derek Carr
- Matt Ryan
- Tyrod Taylor
- Aaron Rodgers
- Sam Bradford
- Kirk Cousins
- Philip Rivers
- Jay Cutler
- Teddy Bridgewater
Assuming at least some fluctuation with at least some stiff competition coming from ascending players like Bridgewater, Bortles (18th), Jameis Winston (17th), and Taylor, it could be tough for Mariota (27th) to make a jump up to the top 10.
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Still, it isn’t impossible. Marcus Mariota showed a knack for the big play in many games, he will have an improved offense around him in year two, and his defense may force him to throw more often than some others, possibly padding his numbers.
The improbable happens all the time in the NFL (who saw Tyrod Taylor completely dominating in 2015?) and Mariota could be as good of a bet as anybody else to make the leap up. Better, even, than many others.
With a high average per attempt (already bordering top 10 at 11th in the NFL) and improvements around him which should improve his yards per completion and completion percentage, Mariota is poised to be a polished passer in year two. He may never be a great deep passer (worst in the NFL, according to PFF), but if he continues to excel within his skill set, he has a real shot at being among the better half of passers in 2016 and maybe even in the top-10.
In reviewing Mariota’s 2015 season, NFL Spin Zone’s John Laird writes:
"Mariota will have a lot going for him. He now has a bell cow running back in Murray, a solid trio of wide receivers in Green-Beckham/Wright/Matthews, to go along with an already great tight end in Walker. It’ll be interesting to see what this offense is going to look like behind it’s face of the franchise."
It’s tough not to be excited about what Mariota can bring to the Titans in year two and, possibly, to the NFL overall.
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While the competition to be a Top 10 quarterback is fierce and the top five or six “elites” are all but cemented in place, Mariota has displayed some of the basic levels of success that could predicate a jump up into those ranks. This is purely optimistic speculation at this point, but it could very well be doable.