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NFL Predictions 2016: AFC North Over/Under Win Totals

By Dan Salem

Dec 27, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Kaelin Clay (81) is tackled by Pittsburgh Steelers running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (33), cornerback Doran Grant (24) and defensive back Brandon Boykin (25) during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore Ravens defeated Pittsburgh Steelers 20-17. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 27, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Kaelin Clay (81) is tackled by Pittsburgh Steelers running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (33), cornerback Doran Grant (24) and defensive back Brandon Boykin (25) during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore Ravens defeated Pittsburgh Steelers 20-17. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /
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The lines have been set and the AFC North over/under win totals are out. Which team’s record looks bogus and who’s a truly bad bet? NFL Predictions 2016.

Dan Salem and Todd Salem debate in today’s NFL Sports Debate. Two brothers from New York yell, scream, and debate sports.

TODD:

It is always interesting to see the over/under win totals for each NFL team prior to the football season getting underway. Not only are they a good representation of a power rankings, but it is always fascinating to see how far off they often end up being. The NFL is damn hard to predict!

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With that, there is always at least one over/under per division that seems out of whack. I’ll tell you mine if you tell me yours. These can be in either direction obviously; it’s just something that smells a bit fishy. Let’s start with the AFC North.

Bovada has the North looking like this:

Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5
Cincinnati Bengals 9.5
Baltimore Ravens 8.5
Cleveland Browns 4.5

The order of finish is certainly plausible enough, and I could see all of Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Baltimore finishing with between 11 and 8 wins. However, Cincinnati has to be the favorite in this division. I have always been on the Steelers’ bandwagon, but Pittsburgh wins with a prolific offense.

With Le’Veon Bell sidelined for a quarter of the season at minimum (not counting if he sits because of injury), the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ offense drops from prolific to simply good. And good isn’t good enough.

The Cincinnati Bengals were just as scary on offense as Pitt was a season ago yet have what should be a much better defense. The Bengals also get their road game at Pittsburgh in Week 2 when Bell will be out.

I’d personally flipflop the top two teams. But also, not to be ignored, do you see any way the Browns win five games this season?? And the Over is -125 so people are apparently on board with the Year of Cleveland. I am not seeing it.

Jul 29, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green (18) runs drills during training camp at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 29, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green (18) runs drills during training camp at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /

DAN:

The AFC North is one of the more fickle divisions this season. Baltimore seems ripe for a bounce back year, yet I’m not particularly on board with it happening. On the flip side I think Cleveland will be better than people think. Don’t count out RG III just yet. He’s got a lot to prove.

The Bengals have to take a step back eventually, don’t they, and Pittsburgh feels like one more injury/suspension away from being mediocre. It felt good to get that all off my chest. Now for the over/under predictions.

On the surface these win totals look fine. But if you actually consider each one, I start smelling a lot of stinky fish. Will Cleveland win five or more games? I’m 50/50 on that. Will Baltimore win nine or more games? I don’t think so. Will Cincinnati win ten or more games? Yeah, I believe they do. Will Pittsburgh win eleven or more games? I’m 50/50 on that as well, but lean towards no.

If I had to pick one line that was too high or too low, it would be the Cleveland Browns at 4.5 wins. I think that’s at least a game too high right now. The entire team is unproven, so even if you think they’ll win five to seven times, its a high line when they could easily finish with only two victories. That being said, I like these lines more than I expected. One stands out as a complete stay away, however.

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Only one of these lines truly stinks in terms of a wager, and that’s the Baltimore Ravens at 8.5 wins. Stay away. Stay far away! Talk about a crap shoot. While the other three teams are likely to walk the line right around these numbers, Baltimore could truly trend much higher or lower. I don’t have a solid outlook on their team.

If the Bengals do in fact take a step back and Pittsburgh is hampered by suspension, this is the Ravens’ division to win. They can get ten victories. But if Joe Flacco plays like a middle of the road quarterback and the team hits a few bumps, Baltimore could be a six win team. I don’t like 8.5 wins for the over or the under. At least we know which side to pick with their division rivals.

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