2016 NFL Predictions: No Lock in NFC South Over/Under Win Totals

We know the Carolina Panthers will be good, but the NFC South over/under win totals from Vegas look bad. The division isn’t this good top to bottom.

The NFC South produced the conference’s representative in Super Bowl 50 last season in the Carolina Panthers. With the roster they have for 2016, they have to be one of the favorites to return. However, that doesn’t mean that Vegas is looking at the division realistically. In fact, it’s the complete opposite.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the NFC South in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Over/unders are hard. Misinformation makes them harder. Not all lines look correct during the preseason and each NFL division seems to have mistakes made by the books. Having already found mistakes in nearly all of the divisions, just the NFC South and West remain.

The NFC South over/unders shake out like this, according to Bovada:

Carolina Panthers: 10.5
Atlanta Falcons: 7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.5
New Orleans Saints: 7

Ugh, what a mess. Carolina is obviously the best of this bunch. The rest of the division; who knows? I could see any of Atlanta, Tampa Bay or New Orleans finishing second or last. Does that make these over/unders correct? I suppose it might. I don’t feel confident in claiming any of the three are better or worse than the other two. Do you see any separation I am missing?

The thing that I come back to here is the Panthers’ line should be higher. Is anyone anywhere grabbing the under on the Panthers at 10.5 wins? No way. They will probably have 10 wins by Week 14. Carolina arguably has the best defense in the conference. They have the best quarterback (or, at worst, the second best) and the best running game. Also, they should have their No. 1 receiver this year.

Sure, some pieces are gone from the team’s secondary. But otherwise the Panthers should be as good or better than they were in 2015. And the first-place schedule they are forced to traverse? They play Minnesota and Washington, two teams that no one thinks have any chance of repeating as division winners. At worst, this line should be 11 wins. I could even see 11.5 and would still take the over.

Dan Salem:

That’s a solid argument for Carolina’s line being too low, but betting any team will win more than 11 games is very risky. Like everyone else, the Panthers are one injury away from losing two or more extra games. That’s how small the margin is between 10-6 and 12-4 in the NFL. Therefore I like Carolina’s line. Its Tampa Bay’s over/under that stinks to me.

While both Atlanta and New Orleans will be much improved, I’m not confident in the Buccaneers making any headway this season. Jameis Winston is a solid quarterback, but he’s not going to elevate his team into the eight-or-nine-win category in year two. I trust the veterans Matt Ryan and Drew Brees to do so for their teams, so I can live with the Falcons’ and Saints’ lines. Tampa Bay has the potential to win eight games, sure—but it’s a bad bet.

I’d put the Buccaneers’ line at least a half game lower, at seven wins. This is a much harder bet to take and therefore a better line for this football team. You’re right to lump all three teams not named Carolina together, so it’s the veteran quarterbacks who I’ll put my money on. Will Tampa Bay win six or eight games? I really can’t say, and that’s what makes for a good betting line.

Fantasy Football: Top 5 Can't Miss Sleepers

The NFC South is so top-heavy that one of these teams is going to stink it up. Unfortunately for the Bucs, my money is on Tampa Bay to do so. Their line is too high.

Home/NFC South