Texans at Patriots: Preview, Predictions, and More
Houston Texans vs New England Patriots
To kick off the NFL Week 3 slate, the New England Patriots will play host to the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are strong contenders in the AFC and enter this matchup at 2-0. This game could have some serious postseason implications down the road.
The biggest story in this game is the Patriots’ situation at the quarterback position. Not only are they without Tom Brady who is out with a suspension, backup Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a sprained AC joint in Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins.
Garoppolo had been fantastic in relief of Brady, but is unlikely to pay against the Texans. The next man up for the Patriots is third-round rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
Brissett is an extremely talented passer who looked good against the Dolphins last week. The Patriots ran an extremely vanilla offense with Brissett in the game, but he looked as good as they possibly could have hoped.
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It will be interesting to see how Brissett can do with the Patriots being able to get him ready. However, he will have his hands full against the Texans. J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and Jadeveon Clowney make up an extremely talented defensive front who will undoubtedly look to create a ton of pressure on Brissett.
Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler has not been perfect this season, but he is doing a great job of getting the ball in the hands of his play-makers. Between DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Miller and Will Fuller, Osweiler has a ton of weapons at his disposal. The Patriots’ defense will undoubtedly have their hands full on Thursday night.
Keys to Victory for Texans
1. Establish the Run: Lamar Miller is an extremely talented back who can make a significant difference for the Texans’ offense. They have play-makers on the outside, but Miller can be the guy who controls the pace for the team.
The Patriots have struggled a bit to stop the run this season. It would certainly help to get linebacker Dont’a Hightower back this week, but regardless, the Texans should look to get Miller going early.
2. Attack the Quarterback: Despite being forced into a tough situation, Brissett looked extremely comfortable for the Patriots last week. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will undoubtedly do a great job of getting him ready for the Texans, but there is not much they can do if he does not have time to work.
The Patriots’ offensive line played well last week, but they are a shaky bunch and the trio of Watt, Mercilus and Clowney is top-notch. The Texans need to make Brissett uncomfortable in this game, and they certainly have the players to make it happen.
Keys to Victory for Patriots
1. Make Brissett Comfortable: Obviously, providing Brissett with top-notch protection will be key, but that is not the entire story. Brissett is a smart player who simply needs to get the ball to his play-makers.
Julian Edelman is a big-time threat in the short passing game, and he will undoubtedly be a huge part of the game plan. Also, getting star tight end Rob Gronkowski would be an ideal situation.
Pass protection, short passes and a strong running game will help make the rookie quarterback comfortable.
2. Take Away DeAndre Hopkins: The Texans have some nice offensive weapons now, but DeAndre Hopkins is still their biggest threat. The Patriots simply must not let Hopkins beat them deep.
Malcolm Butler will likely be the one who responsible for defending Hopkins. Butler has been inconsistent this season, but he has the ability to shut him down. Miller, Fuller and company are great, but DeAndre Hopkins is the fuel of this Texans’ offense.
Keeping him in check is a massive key in this game.
Odds
Point Spread: HOU -2.5
Moneyline: HOU -140, NE +120
Over/Under: 41
Next: NFL Week 3 Picks and Predictions for Each Game
Prediction
I completely understand the Texans being favorites here. Lining up your third-string rookie quarterback to take the snaps is never ideal. That being said, I do not think it is wise to bet against Belichick and company, especially at home.
This one could go either way, but give me the Patriots.
Pick: New England Patriots: 20, Houston Texans: 17