Cincinnati Bengals: Week 4 Brings a Surprising Must-Win Scenario

The Cincinnati Bengals hope to return to the postseason for a sixth consecutive year, but a loss to the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night could end that dream.

This season was supposed to be different for the Cincinnati Bengals. It has to be different if the franchise is going to continue on its current path. That might feel strange to think about since the past five years have brought the most successful stretch in team history in terms of playoff appearances. The Bengals are perennial playoff contenders and a major factor in the AFC North—which is terrific after various spans of futility.

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Yet, each of the past five seasons has ended in similarly disappointing fashion. The Bengals get to the postseason, players and fans get excited, and then the Bengals lose.

Head coach Marvin Lewis has brought Cincinnati seven playoff appearances during his tenure with the team. However, the Bengals haven’t actually won a postseason contest since 1990. Even the woeful Cleveland Browns have tasted a postseason victory more recently. What Lewis and the Bengals have accomplished over the past five seasons is impressive, but it also brings about a very “so what” attitude.

Things might have been different last season if Cincinnati had managed to secure a first-round playoff bye. Had quarterback Andy Dalton not suffered a broken thumb and had the Bengals managed to knock off the Denver Broncos in Week 16, the late-game meltdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers might never have occurred. Cincinnati might have gotten its playoff win. The team might have even made a run at the Super Bowl.

Nothing was different, though. The Bengals hosted one playoff game, put themselves in position to win, and then blew it.

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Yet, this season was going to be different. Dalton is healthy again. The team appeared to have another strong draft. Despite losing Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu in the offseason—and losing Tyler Eifert to injury—the offense was chock full of playmakers. This season can still be different, but the 1-2 Bengals absolutely must start winning now in order for it to be.

Sure, the Bengals had a rough start to their season. Opening in New York to face the Jets isn’t easy. Neither is playing the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road. Getting Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian in his third pro start at Paul Brown Stadium might have seemed like a blessing before the season. However, Siemian is proving to be a very capable quarterback.

The end result is that Cincinnati is sitting at 1-2. The team is behind both the Steelers (2-1) and the Baltimore Ravens (3-0) in the division and already has a head-to-head loss to Pittsburgh. Bengals players insist they’re not going to panic over two early-season losses.

“Why would we hit the panic button? Vontaze [Burfict]is coming back. Our team is a good team,” cornerback Adam Jones said, per Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com. “We let two of them slip away. Eifert is on the way back…First quarter of the season. Let’s get out of the first quarter .500. That’s the goal.”

It might be a bit too early to panic, but the Bengals need to face this truth: it’s only Week 4, and Cincinnati is already facing a must-win scenario.

If the Bengals lose to the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night, they’ll be sitting at 1-3, just one loss away from their 2015 total. Cincinnati then faces brutal road games against the Dallas Cowboys and the New England Patriots. Four losses before the team’s Week 9 bye is a possibility, even if the Bengals do beat Miami. That’s a problem.

Cincinnati couldn’t earn a first-round bye with 12 wins last season, and the team is already facing an uphill fight if it wants one this year. Three of the NFL’s five undefeated teams—the Ravens, Patriots and Broncos—are in the AFC.

As we already mentioned, the Bengals are also looking at an uphill battle in the AFC North. You can bet the Bengals don’t want to limp into the playoffs as a Wild Card team and have to play in a hostile environment like in Pittsburgh or Denver. That, of course, is if the Bengals can even make it to the postseason this year.

A loss to Miami would make even reaching the postseason difficult. Since 1990, only 26 NFL teams have made the playoffs after a 1-3 start. The Kansas City Chiefs did it in 2015, but they also rattled off 10 consecutive wins to finish the season.

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In addition to beating Miami, the Bengals have to prove they are a better team than the one we’ve seen thus far. Cincinnati is ranked just 18th in scoring (18.7 points per game) and 20th in scoring defense (25.0 points per game allowed). Dalton has already been sacked 12 times this season. Cincinnati’s defense—which was arguably its biggest strength in 2015—is rated just 15th overall by Pro Football Focus.

Cincinnati has to play better if it’s going to a be legitimate contender this year.  A loss to Miami would almost cement the fact that it isn’t one. If the Bengals want to buck their recent trend—and do it in a positive way—they have to turn the proverbial tide with a win on Thursday night.