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NFL Week 5: Best Picks Against the Spread (ATS)

By Dan Salem

Dec 24, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree (15) catches the ball for a touchdown against San Diego Chargers cornerback Craig Mager (29) during the fourth quarter at O.co Coliseum. The Oakland Raiders defeated the San Diego Chargers 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 24, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree (15) catches the ball for a touchdown against San Diego Chargers cornerback Craig Mager (29) during the fourth quarter at O.co Coliseum. The Oakland Raiders defeated the San Diego Chargers 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /
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Games have been upside down with shutouts way too prevalent. Yet we must persevere. These are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 5.

Entering Week 5 of the 2016 NFL season, the bye weeks pick up. We lose four teams this week: the Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Carolina game seems to be off the board as well at the moment, because no one is sure if Cam Newton will be healthy enough to play.

Related Story: 5 Head Coaches on the Hot Seat Entering Week 5

Perhaps this will play to our benefit when picking games against the spread. The way we have started out the year, it certainly can’t get too much worse by limiting our options. Here are your best picks for NFL Week 5.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the best picks against the spread in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

2016 Record Against the Spread:

Dan Salem: 4-4
Todd Salem: 3-5

Time to ride some winning momentum and get ourselves back on the right side of picking winners. Let’s play.

Todd Salem’s Week 5 Picks ATS

  • Washington Redskins +4 at Baltimore Ravens

This is a game of teams trending in opposite directions. When Washington began the season 0-2, it wasn’t really that much worse of a team than the rest of its division. That was shown in its win over New York and subsequently Cleveland. The Redskins’ defense is still poor, but here’s an interesting tidbit; the Ravens aren’t very good at football.

Baltimore began 3-0 with a total margin of victory of 13 points. It played another one-possession game in Week 4 and came out on the wrong side. The running game got going against Oakland, but Joe Flacco and company haven’t looked comfortable all year. They have the 26th ranked offense in the NFL according to DVOA. Washington shouldn’t be getting over a field goal on the point spread, yet they are. This should be another one-possession game.

  • Oakland Raiders -4 vs. San Diego Chargers

The Oakland Raiders may not be great despite their 3-1 record. It is hard to tell since they have as many close finishes as the Ravens. However, Oakland has an elite offense, has won three road games and just defeated Baltimore head-to-head. I don’t love Oakland as much as I love the spot here: a team at home against San Diego only giving four points.

San Diego has been snake-bit this year. I liked the Chargers to have a good season, but the football gods are against them in 2016 with injuries and so on. Though close finishes and one-possession games are often unskilled determinations over a large enough sample, San Diego seems to have the skill of losing these whether because of Mike McCoy or something else. I expect to see Oakland’s largest margin of victory all year (which isn’t saying much).

Dan Salem’s Week 5 Picks ATS

  • Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Detroit Lions

This line feels like a joke. Perhaps everyone has forgotten what the Eagles did to Pittsburgh two weeks ago. The team’s bye has wiped everyone’s memory. Or perhaps everyone has already forgotten how piss-poor the Lions looked against a barely formidable Chicago Bears team last weekend. Three points is nothing in this contest. Philadelphia should run away with things.

I’ve been impressed with how well Carson Wentz has played for the Eagles thus far, but I’m even more impressed with Philadelphia’s defense. They have shut people down and will do so again versus Detroit. The Lions will not keep this game close and certainly won’t be within a field goal. Give up the three points, because the Eagles are winning by at least a touchdown.

  • Minnesota Vikings -6 vs Houston Texans

Two weeks ago I wouldn’t have sided with the Vikings in this matchup, but now they are simply too good to pass up. Tell me why Houston’s offense will be able to score on Minnesota’s defense, when the Giants could barely muster up a peep. Tell me why the Texans’ defense will all of a sudden be able to stop the Vikings’ very powerful running attack. Both teams have solid records, but only one is truly potent on both sides of the football.

Fantasy Football: Week 5 Waiver Wire Pickups

The Vikings will once again be at home, shifting the scales heavily in their favor against Houston. I see this as a 10-point game, so giving six is well worth your while. Minnesota has too many weapons at its offensive disposal, not to mention a suffocating defense. Brock Osweiler will be in for a very long afternoon.

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