Dolphins at Ravens: Preview, Prediction, Odds

Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens

With the Denver Broncos losing a close game to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Miami Dolphins are in unfamiliar territory—in playoff position coming into the league’s final month of the season. The Dolphins have, thanks to a six-game win streak, taken over the second Wild Card spot. They control their own destiny, so every game from here on out is huge. Sunday’s match-up with the Baltimore Ravens is no exception.

Miami comes into Baltimore riding a high I have never seen in all my years watching the Dolphins. They have a six-game winning streak and all the frustration and anger from the team’s dismal start has melted away. Fans are looking towards the future with hope and glee instead of disheartening apathy. It’s a welcome change.

The game isn’t just big for the Dolphins and their fans, either. Baltimore fans have a vested interest in this game as well, for the Ravens are still in the thick of the playoff picture. The Ravens are currently sitting atop the AFC North standings, holding the tie-breaker over the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Every game is do-or-die for the Ravens, too. The atmosphere in M&T Bank Stadium should be electric.

Here are the keys to victory for each team.

Dolphins Keys to Victory

Offensive Line Play: One of the biggest keys to the Miami Dolphins recent resurgence has been the play of the offensive line. During the six-game streak, the Dolphins have seen running back Jay Ajayi post back-to-back 200+ yard rushing games. Ryan Tannehill has seen a dramatic decrease in the number of plays he watches from his back.

The last two weeks, however, have been a return to Earth for the group. Thanks in large part to the injuries suffered by both left tackle Branden Albert and left guard Laremy Tunsil. The good news for the Dolphins is that both guys practiced this week and are expected to play. How they play coming off injury will go a long way toward determining how effective the offense is.

Young Wide Receivers: The NFL always has been, and always will be, a “next man up” league. Every team has to deal with injuries, especially as the season comes to a close. The Miami Dolphins are no exception. With the injury to wide receiver DeVante Parker, it’s time for the young receivers to show what they can do.

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Much of the onus is going to fall on rookie wide receiver Leonte Carroo. We saw a sneak preview of what he can do when Parker went down last week against the 49ers. If Parker is unable to go on Sunday, or if he’s severely hampered, expect Carroo to take on a bigger role. Some of the responsibility could also fall on the newly called-up Rashawn Scott. I wouldn’t expect much from him, but won’t be surprised to hear his name called a time or two on Sunday

Finish Strong: The game on Sunday against the 49ers was almost the polar opposite of the week before against the Rams. On Sunday, the Dolphins looked strong for three and a half quarters, and nearly blew the game at the end. The team had a 31-10 lead late in the game. Yet, by the time the final whistle blew, the Dolphins came within two yards of blowing the lead and needing an overtime period.

That can’t happen on Sunday against the Ravens. Baltimore is a lot better than the 49ers team that Miami just faced. If the Dolphins give Baltimore a chance to win the game late, I don’t like the odds of that defense holding up against the likes of Joe Flacco. Flacco has struggled at times this season, but I still don’t want to give a quarterback like him a chance with the game on the line late.

Ravens Keys to Victory

Flacco-to-Wallace Connection: After failed stints in both Miami and Minnesota, Ravens wide receiver Mike Wallace has seen somewhat of a career resurgence this season in Baltimore. Wallace is on pace for over 1,100 yards this season. This would be his first season over the 1,000-yard mark since his third season in Pittsburgh. That season saw Wallace make his only Pro Bowl.

That’s not to say that Wallace is a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver this season. But it does go to show that the connection with Flacco has been working for him. With the injuries in the Miami secondary this season, the Wallace-to-Flacco connection could burn Miami and play a major role in this game. The fact that Wallace may have some added motivation against his former team is icing on the cake.

Stop the Jay Train: After back-to-back 200+ yard rushing performances against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills, Jay Ajayi has come back to Earth. He has failed to eclipse 100 yards in each of the last three games. Ajayi could only muster 45 yards last Sunday against the 49ers.

The Baltimore rush defense comes into Sunday’s match-up as the top-ranked rushing defense in the entire NFL. However, the Dolphins are getting two key offensive linemen back for the game in Branden Albert and Laremy Tunsil. They’re still without center Mike Pouncey, but the running game should improve with a healthy left side of the line. It’ll be strength vs. strength.

Bring the Heat: The Dolphins offensive line has done a much better job at protecting Ryan Tannehill during the team’s win streak. Tannehill has played from his back much too often during his career, being the most sacked quarterback in the league since his rookie season. With the improved line and amount of time on his feet has come a lot of improvement in Tannehill’s game.

If the Ravens are going to come out of this game with a win, they’re going to need to put pressure on the Dolphins quarterback. The offensive line has two players returning from injury. If I’m the Ravens defensive coordinator, I’m putting pressure on those guys early and often. Make them show that they are healthy, and if they’re not, take advantage of it.

Odds

Point Spread: Baltimore -3.5
Moneyline: Baltimore -180, Miami +160
Over/Under: 40.5

Must Read: 5 Reasons Dolphins Miss Playoffs

Prediction

This game makes me nervous. I don’t think that Miami is going to run the table and finish the season on an 11-game win streak. A loss is going to come sooner or later. With that being said, I don’t think it comes on Sunday. Both teams have a lot to play for and I expect to see a tough, physical game on Sunday. In the end, I think it’s Miami who comes up with a big play late to push the win streak to seven.

Pick: Miami Dolphins: 24, Baltimore Ravens: 20

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