Giants at Steelers: Preview, Prediction, Odds

New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The “dress rehearsal” is over for the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers, both of whom are coming off a two-week stretch against opponents that are closer to being in contention for the No. 1 overall pick in next spring’s draft than they are to the winning the Lombardi Trophy in February.

In that regard, this game should be a good test for both teams regarding how they might potentially fare against a step up in competition. The Giants are riding a six-game winning streak and are brimming with confidence, especially as their defense continues to play lights out ball. The Steelers have a two-game winning streak that ended a four-game slide against teams with postseason aspirations.

The Steelers have not won more than two games in a row this season, but now would be a good time for them to break the trend if they are to keep pace with the division leading Baltimore Ravens in the NFC North.

Here are our keys to victory for both teams.

Giants Keys to Victory

Run the Ball. If it seems like this is something that’s been listed as a key for the Giants every week, it’s because it has. Unfortunately, for the Giants, saying it over and over, hasn’t quite produced the same results as trying to summon Beetlejuice.

Anyway, while the Giants have rushed for over 100 yards as a team the last three weeks, their average per rush has dipped. As the weather turns colder, the running game needs to pick things up, yet the Giants seem to be stuck in a rut in this regard, the challenge not getting any easier against a Steelers run defense ranked ninth in the NFL that’s allowing 95.3 yards per game to opponents.

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Find Success in the Red Zone. Move over, Giants; there’s a new leader perched atop of the league rankings in red zone defense. That new leader is none other than the Steelers, who are allowing opponents to score touchdowns inside the red zone on just 41.67 percent of their trips inside the 20-yard line.

The Giants, meanwhile, have scored touchdowns on 61 percent of their red zone visits this year and, in fact, have converted eight out of their last eight trips in the red zone into touchdowns. That trend needs to continue this week, as the Giants can ill-afford to leave points on the field nor settle for field goals to be made by a place kicker who has missed three PATs in his last two games.

Steelers Keys to Victory

Limit Odell Beckham Jr. The Giants are 4-1 when Beckham scores this season. While the Giants will probably look to move Beckham around to get him free, the Steelers are more than likely to deploy bracket coverage against he Giants’ top receiver in an effort to minimize his impact on the game.

Ideally, the Steelers might want to have speedy rookie Artie Burns draw most of the coverage assignments against the Giants’ No. 1 receiver, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll have Burns or Ross Cockrell follow Beckham regardless of where he lines up.

Establish the Run. The Giants run defense has been steadily climbing up the league ranks, going from the 12th best unit in Week 5 to the fifth best entering this week. While the Steelers would no doubt like to test guys like Giants safety Andrew Adams and rookie Eli Apple deep, they can only do so if they can get the run going to keep first and second downs manageable.

Running back Le’Veon Bell will need to have a big day if the Steelers offense is to avoid becoming one dimensional. Bell has rushed for 266 yards on 51 carries (5.2 yards per carry) and two touchdowns in his last two games, and has 12 receptions for 77 yards as well. Look for Bell to be featured heavily to start the game, particularly if the weather takes a turn for the worse.

Odds

Point Spread: Pittsburgh -6
Moneyline: New York +210, Pittsburgh -260
Over/Under: 48.5

Next: NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 13

Prediction

If the Giants are to have any hope of winning the NFC East, they likely need to win the rest of their games by playing a lot better than they have collectively during the winning streak.

Sure, the defense has played at a championship level, but there are enough little things—sloppy tackling and self-inflicted wounds—that will make it difficult for them to stand toe-to-toe with the step up in competition. Unless head coach Ben McAdoo and his assistants can pound those dents out of the Big Blue armor, this week probably won’t end favorably for the Giants.

Pick: New York Giants: 23, Pittsburgh Steelers: 33

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