AFC Divisional Playoffs 2017: How Texans Can Upset the Patriots

The Houston Texans may be heavy underdogs, but there’s a recipe for an upset in the 2017 AFC Divisional Playoff against the New England Patriots.

After defeating a banged-up Oakland Raiders team 27-14 on Wild Card Weekend, the task gets a lot tougher for the Houston Texans this week as they head into Foxborough to take on the 14-2 New England Patriots. These two teams met in Week 3 (a 27-0 win by New England), but there is one glaring change this time around—Tom Brady, not third-stringer Jacoby Brissett, is starting this week.

The Texans are double-digit underdogs, and most experts aren’t giving them a chance to advance to the AFC Championship game. However, this game might be closer than some think. Houston looked possibly their best all season in the Wild Card Round and could potentially see that carry over.

There’s a way that the Texans can upset the Patriots and these five areas of the game are where they must succeed to pull off the shocker of the year:

Limiting Yards after the Catch (YAC)

New England thrives on throwing short passes and watching their receivers rack up the YAC. In the regular season, New England ranked second in terms of yards after the catch (5.79 YAC per reception), while the Houston Texans defense ranked fourth in YAC allowed. If Houston can prevent five-yard throws from turning into 10- or 15-yard gains, they could have a chance of slowing down this offense. However, if the Patriots are able to run wild, it could be a long day for Houston.

Penalties

These are two of the least penalized teams in the league. Houston committed only 87 penalties in the regular season (fewest in NFL), while New England committed just 93 (fourth fewest in NFL). An uncharacteristic penalty here or there by Houston could change the tide of the game dramatically. If Bill O’Brien’s squad wants to pull off the upset, they need to minimize their mistakes.

Quarterback Pressure

We all saw in the AFC Championship Game last season that if you can put pressure on Tom Brady, he isn’t as effective. Houston’s defense dominated the line of scrimmage against the Raiders, with Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney leading the charge. Pressure up the middle is especially critical, and you can be sure that long-time Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork is just licking his chops thinking about getting Brady on the ground.

If Houston can protect Brock Osweiler, there are plays to be had against this Patriots defense. Osweiler really struggles under duress, so it’s vital that the Texans offensive line neutralizes a Patriots pass rush that generated 34 regular season sacks.

Running Game

In the Week 3 meeting, Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 105 yards and two touchdowns, while Texans running back Lamar Miller ran for 80 yards, but only with a 3.8 yards per carry average. In last week’s playoff game, Miller ran for 73 yards, but only averaged 2.4 yards per carry. The bottom line is this: Houston needs to run the ball much more efficiently, control the clock, and keep Tom Brady on the sidelines. If Blount gets going and the Patriots offense becomes two-dimensional, they are almost unstoppable.

Turnovers

This usually goes without saying, but the team that wins the turnover battle usually wins the game. The Texans defense forced three turnovers last week, yet that kind of performance was very rare for the team in the regular season. During the 16-game schedule, the Texans forced only 17 turnovers, 26th in the league. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense turned the ball over only 11 times during the regular season, fewest in the league.

Next: 20 Bold Predictions for the Divisional Playoffs

This is the one category that the Houston Texans absolutely must win. If they win the turnover battle, they’ll have a fighting chance to pull the upset. Contrarily, if they lose or even are tied in the turnover battle, this team has not shot.

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