After advancing to the 2017 NFC Championship Game, should the Atlanta Falcons want to see the Green Bay Packers or Dallas Cowboys?
After putting forth a historic offensive effort in the regular season, the Atlanta Falcons didn’t let up in the Divisional Round. Matt Ryan and company absolutely torched a short-handed Seattle Seahawks defense and made them pay time and again. Once they got into a rhythm, there was no stopping Atlanta. Now the Falcons are advancing to the 2017 NFC Championship Game where they await the winner of Sunday’s matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys.
The matchup in Arlington, TX between the Packers and Cowboys promises to be a star-studded, entertaining affair. Aside from Atlanta, they ended the year as the two most impressive teams in the NFC. However, that leaves the Falcons with a simple question looking at Sunday’s game: Would they rather face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers or Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys?
Obviously they would rather face the Cleveland Browns rather than picking the better matchup between two great teams, but that’s not possible for a number of reasons. Subsequently, the Falcons are left looking at potential matchups with the hottest offense in the league (Packers) or with a rookie-led offensive juggernaut (Cowboys).
Looking at a possible matchup with Green Bay, the Falcons faced the Packers in Week 8 and emerged victorious in a tight matchup at home, 33-32. Before you say that this was before Rodgers turned it on, though, the MVP-candidate quarterback was magnificent in that regular-season meeting.
Though he only threw for 246 yards, he tossed four touchdowns and no interceptions on the day. However, the Packers defense couldn’t keep up with Ryan and the Falcons offense as the other MVP-candidate quarterback spread the ball around and diced up Green Bay’s porous secondary—even with Julio Jones not making much of an impact.
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Meanwhile, we can only speculate as to what at Falcons-Cowboys matchup would look like as the two teams didn’t meet in the regular season. What’s critical here, though, is that the Falcons would have to go on the road in this scenario. Atlanta was a far better team in the confines of the Georgia Dome this season—even if they have an odd record to reflect that, going 5-3 at home.
Looking at Ryan in particular (per Pro Football Reference), the Atlanta quarterback completed 5.25 percent more of his throws, averaged 27.2 more yards per game, and even averaged 0.47 more yards per attempt when playing at home this season. Even more telling, though, is the defensive effort for the Falcons at home.
Aside from allowing three more rushing touchdowns at home, they were far better against the pass at home. They allowed 426 fewer passing yards and nine fewer passing touchdowns at home than on the road. Moreover, they accrued two more sacks at the Georgia Dome.
When you consider that the Cowboys have been dominant at home this season, the notion of the Falcons being worse on the road this season in terms of production is less than settling for Atlanta. In theory, this Dallas team could take full advantage of that Falcons defense if they’re in AT&T Stadium—which they would be if they win on Sunday.
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That ultimately leaves us with the assertion that the Packers are the better matchup for the Falcons. Yes, they’re red-hot and have been playing great offensively. But their defense is far more susceptible than Dallas’ and the Falcons have already handled Rodgers producing at a high level. Subsequently, the fans in Atlanta should be hoping for a road upset by the Packers on Sunday.