Green Bay Packers: Time To Move On From Dom Capers

Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers had a thankless job in the 2017 NFC Championship Game, but it still might be time for a change.

Entering the 2017 NFC Championship Game, it was clear that the Green Bay Packers could only hope to manage the Atlanta Falcons offense. The Falcons have been high-powered on that side of the ball all season long and managed to get past plenty of talented teams on the strength of their offense.

Yet the Packers came out flat. Defense wins championships and the defense that Green Bay displayed against the Falcons certainly wasn’t championship-level. The 44 points the Falcons put up was the third most in the entire season and just four fewer than the total the Falcons posted in an October beatdown of the hapless Carolina Panthers.

Atlanta managed to control the clock (33 minutes of possession) while also successfully connecting on deep passes. Most importantly, when the Packers got the Falcons to third down, the Falcons just kept on rolling, converting 10-of-13 attempts. Teams that can convert that often will almost always win.

While it’s true that the Packers “ran into a buzz saw,” the time for a defense to prove its worth is in the big moments, like a conference championship game. Instead, the Packers showed, again, that the defense headed by Dom Capers is woefully inconsistent.

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The numbers are not particularly damning for the 2016 Packers defense: 22nd in yards allowed, 21st in points allowed, 11th in takeaways. The numbers are not ideal, but the opportunistic defense made it work, particularly while running the table to finish the season. Injuries plagued the team and the resilience shown by the defense should be noted.

What should also be noted is how the Capers-led defense simply can’t consistently put up impressive numbers. Looking through his expansive career records, it’s unclear whether Capers is a quality defensive coordinator or if he is a mediocre coordinator with a moderately high ceiling. His first two defenses in 2009 and 2010 were top-five quality, ranking second and fifth overall in yards allowed and seventh and second in points allowed, respectively.

Since then it has been mediocrity through and through. In 2011, though, Capers fielded the worst defense in the league. Ranking as high as 11th in yards allowed and as low as 32nd, the Packers defense clearly has not been effective since 2010. The strength of the team has made a clear shift away from the defense in favor of a competent offense that can outscore opponents to win. This is a strategy that has worked.

Compensating for a mediocre defense is not a strategy that wins championships, however. The Packers own the NFC North (for the most part) because the opposing offenses can’t put up as many points as they can. The Falcons showed that other high powered offenses can take the fight to the Packers and win.

This is not something new. The Packers have been out-scoring opponents for years and it has long been viewed as an unsustainable strategy. To win the big games, the Packers need to be able to limit opposing offenses so Aaron Rodgers and the offense don’t have to post 50+ points to win a game. The Packers scored 30 or more points in eight games this season and five of those games were still one-score games.

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Head coach Mike McCarthy had a hot seat in 2016 for maybe the first time in his tenure in Green Bay. Running the table took some pressure off, but if he wants to keep his job and prove he’s serious about winning championships, he needs to seriously reevaluate how the Packers defense is run. And that should include assessing Capers’ future.

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