The tall task of covering Julio Jones and company awaits the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 51? How will the Pats cover the Falcons receivers?
The New England Patriots clinched their spot in a record-breaking ninth Super Bowl by taking down the high-powered offense of the Pittsburgh Steelers, 36-17, in their AFC Championship Game win at Gillette Stadium. After holding the offensive-minded Steelers to just 17 points, the Patriots are rewarded with a trip to Houston to take on the NFL’s No. 1 offense.
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The early over-under has been set at 57.5—already the highest number in Super Bowl history. With both Matt Ryan and Tom Brady poised to shred the opposing defense, the question lingers: Can either defense shut down the opposing offense?
Which matchups give the Patriots the best chance to take home their fifth Lombardi Trophy? That is a question that Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia are going to be pondering throughout the next two weeks.
The matchup many will be looking for will be Malcolm Butler playing man coverage against Julio Jones. Butler was tasked with the NFL’s second best receiver in Antonio Brown in the AFC Championship Game (personal opinion). Now, he will likely draw the clear-cut top receiver in the NFL for Super Bowl LI.
The matchup features two Pro Football Focus’ All-Pros going one-on-one at the highest level of football. Butler gives up four inches and 30 pounds to Jones, but is still the best option due to his aggressive nature and ability to jam opponents at the line of scrimmage. Butler was able to alter the release of Antonio Brown, and will look to do the same against Jones.
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Butler will likely not be left on an island, however, as the Patriots can roll safety help over the top to help try to contain Jones. Devin McCourty is the ideal help over the top with great size, speed and coverage skills. This will work as a safety net (no pun intended) for Butler, allowing him to be much more physical with Jones at the line of scrimmage and try to throw off his timing with Logan Ryan.
The Patriots will likely have to play Eric Rowe on Mohamed Sanu in this coverage. Rowe has had his ups and downs as a member of the Patriots, but will need to play one of his best games to keep the Dangerous Sanu off the board. This is another spot where the Patriots might want to roll safety coverage, especially if Butler is able to contain Jones. Rowe has the size and speed to cover Sanu, but his likelihood to give up big plays could require help from McCourty or Harmon, opening up the middle of the field.
This would put Ryan on Taylor Gabriel, a matchup of two explosive players who have big boom or bust potential. Ryan thrives on big matchups, especially in big spots. He would have to be on his best footwork to keep up with the explosive Gabriel, especially once the ball is in his hands.
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If the Falcons decide to go with more receivers, employing a zone coverage would likely be the best option—even if it leaves them susceptible to giving up plays underneath. While this coverage scheme requires a lot of big individual performances, and does not account for the terrific running back play from Atlanta, it is the best coverage plan for the Patriots to try to clinch a fifth Super Bowl ring in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick Era.