Would Pittsburgh Steelers Really Let Antonio Brown Go?

With speculation about Antonio Brown‘s future creeping up, would the Pittsburgh Steelers actually part ways with one of their megastars?

Even though the Pittsburgh Steelers were knocked out of the playoffs again, the 2016 season was a rousing success. The Steelers overcame injuries to Ben Roethlisberger, Cameron Heyward, Ladarius Green, and Markus Wheaton, as well as suspensions to Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell to win 11 games and reach the AFC Championship Game.

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The famed offensive trio of Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown carried the Steelers to victory in 2016. Bell averaged 157 yards from scrimmage per game, producing a season that was even more impressive than David Johnson‘s or Ezekiel Elliott‘s. As for Brown, he “only” had 106 receptions for 1,284 yards and 12 touchdowns, making it four-straight seasons with 100 receptions.

Brown’s final memories of the 2016-17 season weren’t positive, however. Before a ho-hum performance in the Steelers loss to the New England Patriots, Brown was fined $10,000 by the Steelers for streaming the team’s post-game locker room celebration live on Facebook. During this stream, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin referred to the Patriots as “a*****es,” sparking a non-story that media outlets had more fun with than the public.

Apparently the Steelers remain upset with Brown, who reportedly has a six-figure deal with Facebook and was encouraged by the company to stream the video.

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Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio penned what was essentially him thinking out loud on Tuesday. Florio surmised that the Steelers are sending a message to the rest of the league that Brown is up for grabs on the trading block. Florio believes that the report from the NFL Network’s Aditi Kinkhabwala was leaked by the Steelers that was less than complimentary of the receiver. Kinkhawbwala’s report stated that Brown was acting selfishly in the AFC Championship Game after another player caught a touchdown pass and is more concerned with his own stats than his team winning, was leaked by the Steelers.

Additionally, Florio recalled a quote from Tomlin shortly after Brown’s video was broadcasted on Facebook. The head coach said, “That’s often why you see great players move from team to team. Don’t want that to happen to Antonio Brown.”

Although plenty of fans believe that Florio is merely stirring the pot, he makes some great points here. First of all, who else would leak to Kinkhabwala that Brown is becoming selfish? She is based in Pittsburgh and has covered the team closely throughout the season. How closely? Here’s an example:

How tight @Steelers are: Mike Mitchell, Greg Warren, @DeAngeloRB and I got into a debate over the proper construction of PB&J. DeAngelo lost
— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) January 19, 2017

Based on her reporting and relationship with the team, it seems as if Kinkhabwala wouldn’t run with a story like that if it didn’t come from a well-placed source within the organization. Now, the NFL Network isn’t infallible when it comes to passing along rumors and items of that nature, but the important thing is that the wording of Kinkhabwala’s report made it seem like the information came from someone higher up the ranks than, say, a jealous teammate.

While it makes more sense for the Steelers to leak something like that to a national reporter as a way of sending a message to Brown, the notion of them severing ties with Brown has to be entertained. That above quote from Tomlin clearly reads like a warning, and there’s a chance the Steelers are trying to push Brown into demanding a trade. Teams around the league notice leaks and rumors like this. So, as Florio writes, it could easily be a strategy from the Steelers to get people talking. I mean, fans on Twitter were already talking.

Dec 25, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (84) during the fourth quarter of a game against the Baltimore Ravens at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh won 31-27. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Trading Brown would be a terrible decision on the part of the Steelers, however. Even though they may have some trepidation when it comes to paying him—he would become the highest-paid receiver in the league—he is simply far too important to this team. Green may retire, the Steelers can’t count on Bryant, Wheaton is decent but not great, Sammie Coates is woefully inconsistent, Eli Rogers isn’t Brown’s replacement, Roethlisberger is in retirement rumblings, Bell is an impending free agent, and Jesse James is a league-average talent at the tight end position.

Bell may be more important to the Steelers success than Brown, but he has a history of suspensions, too. Running backs are also more risky than wide receivers under large contracts (Doug Martin could become a recent example of this), and Brown seems to carry no risk. He doesn’t get injured, and he catches 100 passes literally every year.

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The Steelers roster is top-heavy, and Brown is the team’s most consistent performer on either side of the ball. He had less than 50 receiving yards in a game just twice last season. Brown is coming off of his worst season in the past three years when it comes to catch rate, yardage, and receptions, but that’s more of a reflection of Roethlisberger’s health and the transition to a more run-heavy attack at the end of the season.

Of course, that transition to a Bell-dominated offense could indicate that the Steelers don’t value Brown as much as other teams do. The problem with the strategy of leaking negative info to drive trade discussions is that it greatly decreases Brown’s value on the trade market. It’s hard enough to draw fair value on the trade market for veteran player, as the Cleveland Browns only needed a third-round pick to acquire Jamie Collins. From their perspective, the biggest cost was making Collins the league’s highest-paid linebacker. Brown would make even more money as the league’s highest-paid receiver, so potentially interested teams would be less willing to spend a high draft pick on a player they must sign to a blockbuster contract.

If anything, I’d say that the Steelers unwise decision to leak negative info to an NFL Network reporter about Brown is a ploy to gain leverage against Brown in contract negotiations. They can point to negative reactions around the league, lowball trade offers, and tell Brown (in their best Triple H voice), “Maybe you aren’t as good as you thought you were.”

We’ve seen this strategy play out before. The Dallas Cowboys absolutely loved doing this with Dez Bryant, spamming the NFL Network with leak like this in order to create the idea that Bryant has a bad attitude and problems off of the field. They tried to play off of a narrative in the hopes that they could reduce Bryant’s leverage at the bargaining table the following offseason. By saying that Brown is selfish and cares more about numbers, which is a way of using Brown’s historical numbers against him, the Steelers are probably doing the same thing.

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See, I don’t think the Steelers are crazy enough to trade Antonio Brown, knowing full well that they won’t get fair value out of him. Since Roethlisberger is teasing retirement and Tomlin didn’t exactly put out that flame, the Steelers know they don’t have a long time to take advantage of the best quarterback in their franchise’s history. Trading his top target and someone he obviously trusts a great deal on the field could have disastrous consequences, because while the Steelers have other talented options like Rogers and Bryant, those players have question marks beyond the obvious fact that they cannot replace Brown one-for-one.