Oakland Raiders: John Pagano Hire Puts Ken Norton in No-Win Situation

The Oakland Raiders decision to hire John Pagano doesn’t bode well for defensive coordinator Ken Norton, regardless of the defensive performance in 2017.

Inside the Oakland Raiders locker room, players and coaches won’t say this, but the decision to hire John Pagano as the Assistant Head Coach, Defense—whatever that means—puts Ken Norton on a hot seat regardless of the outcome in 2017.

Let’s take a step back. Assistant Head Coach, Defense means nothing more than an advisor for the defensive coordinator. Norton wouldn’t need a helping hand if the defense performed on par with expectations. Nonetheless, head coach Jack Del Rio feels his defensive coordinator has done enough to remain on staff without a demotion but not good enough to do his job without a second pair of eyes.

Pagano brings 15 years of coaching experience, all with the San Diego Chargers, to Oakland. He and Del Rio worked as assistants under Mike Ditka with the New Orleans Saints. Twenty years later, they’ll co-exist along with Norton in improving a bottom-third defense in yards allowed.

With the Chargers, Pagano coordinated two top-10 defenses in yards allowed during the 2012 and 2014 campaigns. In the previous season, San Diego ranked No. 10 in rushing yards allowed, and rookie Joey Bosa finished with 10.5 sacks. It’s worth noting linebacker Melvin Gordon, who racked up 18.5 sacks over the past two seasons, will become an unrestricted free agent in March. The Raiders’ new defensive coach knows how to turn up pressure on the pocket.

Where does Pagano’s hire leave Norton? It’s best described as no man’s land.

If Raiders Defense Improves, Do They Need Norton?

Oakland’s defense ranked No. 22 in points allowed during the 2015 season and No. 20 in the following year. Despite the slight bump, it’s a disappointing output considering the front office added cornerback Sean Smith, linebacker Bruce Irvin and safety Reggie Nelson last offseason.

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Despite solid halves toward the end of the 2016 season, quarterback Derek Carr’s absence flashed a blinding light on an underachieving defense. The Raiders played two winnable games against below average quarterbacks, and both signal-callers finished with quarterback ratings above 90. Oakland’s run defense also allowed 123-plus yards in its last two contests.

If the Raiders defense shows significant improvement in the upcoming season, especially in the sacks department, Pagano would receive majority credit.

Sacks don’t tell the entire story on pocket pressure, but Oakland dropped from No. 14 to last in that category under Norton over the past two seasons. A clear improvement would certainly point to Pagano’s ability to pinpoint match ups and expose weaknesses in opposing offensive lines with clever blitz schemes.

The Raiders defense also allowed more yards in the previous season than in 2015. A top-10 finish in the category could give Pagano a pathway to the defensive coordinator seat.

If Raiders Defense Underachieves, Fire Norton!

Another season filled with coverage gaffes in the secondary and a porous front seven would likely cost Norton his job. Since Pagano lists as an assistant with an arbitrary title, he escapes blame. He’s the third defensive mind on the totem pole under Del Rio and Norton.

Though it’s unfair to place fault solely on Norton’s desk, he still holds the defensive coordinator position as Del Rio’s handpicked choice to call the plays. Unless the Raiders win the Super Bowl, the search for a scapegoat will begin right after the team’s final loss. Realistically, most would expect the offense to show up. If there’s a setback, it’s easy to give first-time offensive coordinator Todd Downing a pass.

However, a middle-of-the-pack defense would most certainly take the fall for the team. In that scenario, few people would point the finger at the 2016 Coach of the Year or the assistant brought onboard to help. Fair or not, Norton would bear the heat, which would essentially seal his fate in Oakland.

Next: Oakland Raiders: Final Unit Grades for 2016 Season

Norton would avoid reasonable and irrational criticism in two circumstances: a Raiders’ Super Bowl victory or a top-five defense. A defensive coordinator and assistant running one defense can’t yield average results. If so, one would have to go.

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