There are two sides to every NFL Free Agency deal, the real life impact and the fantasy football fallout. Brandin Cooks joins the New England Patriots, a debate.
Dozens of players found new homes this month in the NFL. More will continue to sign new contracts, though the bulk of the biggest names have already moved. Whether through trade, free agency or release, the NFL turns over each offseason more than any other sport.
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From a fantasy football perspective, these moves have drastic impacts on the coming season. One of the biggest, and the first we will figuratively tackle, is the trade that brought Brandin Cooks to the New England Patriots.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss Fantasy Football in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
The trade for Brandin Cooks was a slam dunk for the New England Patriots. But in terms of strictly fantasy football, what level of impact will it have?
For Tom Brady, who is already one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy, I think any change is negligible. He doesn’t seem to have trouble putting up stats no matter who he has to throw to. Likewise, I see little decline from Drew Brees after losing Cooks’ services. Both quarterbacks are elite and can overcome not having a No. 1 wideout.
Is Cooks now a legitimate No. 1 receiver though? I would say he used to be borderline. Now, with the move to the New England system, I think he stays that way. This may be controversial, but I don’t see any improvement in Cooks’ fantasy output through this trade. If anything, leaving the indoor comfort of the Superdome ends up docking him just a bit. I know it seems weird, but joining Brady and the Patriots hurts Cooks’ fantasy value.
Michael Thomas becomes New Orleans’ top receiver, if he wasn’t already. There was already a great debate over which player you would rather have next year. I would have went with Cooks. Now, I’m not sure. I don’t see Thomas moving up precipitously in the overall rankings, but like I said, I would dock Cooks ever so slightly. They are each top-20 receivers, but neither makes my top 10.
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You see anyone else’s value changing because of this Cooks trade? Julian Edelman probably gets hurt, but he was trending in the wrong direction anyway. Overall, this is a fantastic trade for the Patriots in real life, yet no one really benefits for fantasy purposes. It is a weird one.
Dan Salem:
I think your view is rather controversial, because Brandin Cooks joining the New England Patriots has tremendous upside potential for all parties involved. Its true that both Brees and Brady get their stats regardless of who they are throwing to. But the one season that Brady had a bonafide star at receiver, Randy Moss, he blew the doors off of his statistics and the league. He was much younger at the time, but an uptick in Brady’s production and value is pretty likely this year.
While I see at least one more top fantasy season for Brady, in no small part due to Cooks, Drew Brees may decline a little in 2017. Its hard to say when the fall will happen, but its coming for both players eventually. Their receivers will produce along with them, but its Cooks who comes out on top. Brady loves to work in the new guy for as long as possible, especially when they come with as much talent as Cooks. Edelman loses value, but I’m not sure his production actually falters.
The flip side of this argument is how expensive Cooks will likely be in fantasy football. I agree he’s a top 20 player, but most people will value him in the top 10 for sheer upside potential. The Patriots are champions, in a weak division, with a hall of fame quarterback. Cooks was already good, but can he be great? Everyone will want in on the action, so expect Cooks to go fast in drafts and come at a price. I’m not sure he’s worth it.
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Michael Thomas gains a ton of value from this deal. He may get overlooked by novice fantasy owners, leaving him to get snatched up. I don’t see his price actually rising, but his production certainly will. Thomas’ value will never be higher with the departure of Cooks.