Everyone wants to trade down, but that means someone is trading on up. Five trade scenarios to love and hate in the 2017 NFL Draft. We debate.
The 2017 NFL Draft is this week in Philadelphia. I will be attending the event in person, though it remains to be seen if I will be able to get close enough to actually see the stage. Nevertheless, draft excitement is building.
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One of the most exciting things that can happen on draft day is a big trade. The reason it creates such buzz in the audience is because early trades are pretty rare. Teams switch picks later in the draft an awful lot, but trading up for a big piece on day one is far less common. Yet we know it’s going to happen! Five trade scenarios to love and hate.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the 2017 NFL Draft in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
The interesting thing about trades is that almost every analyst and most fan bases agree that trading back is always a smart move. The evidence is easy to see. Drafting is so hard for even the best front offices that simply adding more chances to draft is the best strategy. ESPN released a draft plan for each NFL franchise heading into Thursday. For five teams, the main prediction was that the team should trade back. For zero teams, the advice was to trade up. So, yeah.
How can five teams trade back if no one wants to move up and everyone agrees that moving up is usually a mistake? As the old saying goes, it takes two to make a draft-day deal.
Do you see any scenarios where teams will actually want to trade up? I’ll start with two:
A. Solomon Thomas is available at No. 8
Though lots of mocks have him being selected second-overall, the top eight could play out with teams selecting need and Thomas sliding a bit. Between quarterbacks, defensive backs, and other pass rushers, we can get to seven guys pretty quickly.
B. Leonard Fournette and/or Christian McCaffrey is available at No. 9
Similarly to Thomas, the top running backs could drop just because teams have other issues ahead of that position. Who, between Fournette and McCaffrey, a team trades up for will depend on preference.
Unexpected slides from random other top players could precipitate trading up. Someone might pull the trigger to move up to grab the last player in a tier as well (such as the last of the first-round offensive linemen).
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Otherwise it is hard to imagine many moves. You are going to tell me that teams are going to trade up for quarterbacks, but I almost feel the opposite. I’d rather trade back and grab a different passer. Everyone always prefers trading back.
Dan Salem:
I’ll see your two NFL Draft trade scenarios and raise you three more.
3. Myles Garrett is available at No. 2
If the Cleveland Browns take a quarterback, running back, or cornerback with the first-overall pick and ignore the best overall player, then I expect a trade to drop with San Francisco. The 49ers need as many draft picks as possible, being in full rebuild mode. Any team with a top fifteen pick can trade with San Francisco for No. 2. It will come at a hefty price, but Garrett is worth it.
4. Deshaun Watson and/or Mitchell Trubisky is available at No. 18
Trading up for a quarterback who’s sliding a bit is very common. Both the Broncos and Jets did it just last year. So if either quarterback takes a slide to where their value actually lives, I expect a trade to drop. Multiple teams currently picking twenty to thirty need a future signal caller, or one for this season. The Giants, Texans, Steelers, and Chiefs could all trade up a few spots to grab a top quarterback.
5. Sheldon Richardson and/or Richard Sherman get traded
There is another trade scenario that feels likely, but its too complicated to truly predict. The New York Jets trading Sheldon Richardson holds a very high probability, yet the chances of it materializing on draft day has to do with a number of other things falling into place. The Jets don’t need him on their defense and want to get max value for Richardson prior to his rookie deal expiring after the upcoming season. If New York is involved in a trade, expect Richardson’s name to be involved.
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The same is true of the Seattle Seahawks and Richard Sherman. His name has been tossed around for weeks, meaning a draft day deal with Sherman involved seems likely for Seattle. The Seahawks will look to trade up from the 26th pick to either replace Sherman, grab a running back, or possibly steal away O.J. Howard who is a special talent at tight end.