Cincinnati Bengals: Should Giovani Bernard-Jeremy Hill Combo Be Replaced?

Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill have been the running back tandem for the Cincinnati Bengals for some time now, but is it time to move forward?

Since 2014, the Cincinnati Bengals have built a significant portion of their offense around the talents of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Bernard came into the league during the 2013 season, and Hill right behind in 2014. Each has a specific style and strengths which, when combined, make for as good of an on-paper running back duo as there would seem to be in the league.

On-paper is the key, however, because while the two would seem to be exactly what you want in terms of combined skill-sets, the actual production and impact forged by them has been far below the expectation.

The skills these two do have is hard to deny. Bernard is a prototype for what teams desire in a receiving back. He can take dumpoffs and screens for sizable gains, and small stature doesn’t take away from his blocking ability. Hill can power through tacklers and gives a physical presence to shove up the gut of the defense.

This has led to a decent statistical accomplishments for each.

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Bernard’s combined rushing/receiving usage saw him accumulate over 1,000 combined yards in his first three seasons, and he likely would’ve done so last year if not for injuries holding him to 10 games (prorate his 2016 stats over 16 games and it comes out to 1,130 combined yards).

Hill meanwhile has done the majority of his damage on the ground (roughly 222 rushing attempts per year, compared to 26 passing targets per year), beginning his career with 1,124 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry in 2014 and averaging 4.1 yards per carry for his career.

The simple statistics don’t tell the whole story, though, and their actual impact on the field hasn’t quite matched up with those numbers. Each of these guys has stacked up decent overall numbers, but when you look at individual games it comes off less impressive.

In 55 games, Bernard has only managed to combine for over 100+ rushing/receiving yards 11 times. Meanwhile, he’s gone under 50 combined yards 15 times in that time. In 47 games, Hill has gotten over 100+ rushing yards just seven times. At the same time, he’s failed to even reach 50 yards 25 different times.

Team-wise, the grouping has been mostly middling for offensive success. They ranked sixth, 13th, and 13th again in rushing yardage in the three years the Bernard-Hill pairing has been around. In yards per attempt, they were 12th, 23rd, and 23rd. They did help the team stand among the best for touchdown runs, but that came attached to those ineffective yards-per-attempt numbers and a generally bad rate of fumbles (8/8/5 from 2014-16, ranked T-11th/T-10th/T-22nd).

Looking at the advanced statistics does them some favors, however. Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA metrics show they have done pretty well on that side of the ball from 2014-16 (10th/7th/12th in Rush Offense DVOA).

Individually, those favors dry up pretty quickly though. Looking at Pro Football Focus’ grading metrics show that Bernard, on a play-by-play basis, is nothing more than average — and is trending downward. Hill ends up looking even worse, consistently shown as below-average every season of his career.

On paper and in some statistical measures, the grouping does have clear positives to them. At the same time, they’ve got plenty of evidence to show that they aren’t quite as good as perceived.

The team has mostly been successful in their time, but it does feel like their success in certain metrics can be attributed to the sum being greater than its individual parts. While all teams needs some level of that for success (offensive lines are the usual place this mantra gets applied, but it can happen at practically any position), just expecting things to consistently play out that way can be a dangerous game and hold back what could be a much stronger aspect of a team.