Running back Adrian Peterson signed with the New Orleans Saints on Tuesday. How should fantasy football owners view this move, and what’s his value?
It wasn’t that long ago when Adrian Peterson was considered the back to own in fantasy football. However, over the last few years the former Oklahoma Sooner has lost a lot of steam and confidence from fantasy owners.
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In 2014, Peterson only played in one game before being suspended for the rest of the year after he was indicted on chargers of child abuse. He was reinstated in February 2015. But by then, the season was well over.
During the 2015 season Peterson looked like his old self. He led the NFL in rushing with 1,485 yards and also chipped in 11 touchdowns on the ground. In 2016, a knee injury limited Peterson to only three games and he averaged a pitiful 1.9 yards per carry (YPC) on 37 totes.
So the question is: Has Father Time finally caught up with Peterson? He has over 2,650 touches in his career and that’s not including the playoffs. We’ve seen premiere Pro Bowl running backs in the past (Shaun Alexander, Maurice Jones-Drew, Deuce McAllister) dramatically drop off from one season to the next. This could simply be Peterson’s time.
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If you want to look at the situation with the glass half-full, Peterson has only appeared in 21 games (including playoffs) over the last three seasons. In two of those three seasons he’s played in three or less games and injury was the reason for only one of them. Peterson’s body should be well rested going into 2017.
Peterson will also get to play with the best quarterback of his career in Drew Brees. He won’t have to be the vocal point of the offense like he was in Minnesota. Defenses won’t be able to stack the box like they did with Tarvaris Jackson, Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel. Other than the 2009 season when Brett Favre, teams will have to respect the pass while AP is in the backfield.
If you want to look at Peterson with some pessimism, he’s totaled 192 carries for 641 yards over his last 11 games. His YPC in those 11 games comes out to a disappointing 3.3. Also, he managed to go over the century mark in only two of those 11 games.
How I View It
Despite being 32 years old and not showing a lot of juice in his legs a season ago, Peterson is someone I’m not willing to bet against. The guy has shown in the past he’s a different kind of breed. Peterson is worth taking a flier on.
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The problem is, Peterson’s current ADP does not show a guy who is being considered “flier” material. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Peterson is currently going in the fourth round in mock drafts. For me, that is way too early for Peterson.
He is joining Mark Ingram in the Saints backfield who is coming off his third consecutive season with 1,100+ yards from scrimmage. Peterson, who is making less money than Ingram, should be considered the backup in New Orleans. At best, he is in a 50/50 timeshare. Ingram has also shown to be a more capable pass-catcher during his time in the NFL and has caught 46+ passes in back-to-back seasons. He should get more work than Peterson in the Saints pass-heavy offense.
Former Saints running back Tim Hightower left this offseason to go to the San Francisco 49ers. Last year he finished with 155 touches (9.7 touches per game). Peterson should see more than that, but not by much.
Advice
Let one of the other owners in your league draft Peterson.
I’m a fan of what Peterson has done in the NFL over the last decade but he’s not the same guy anymore. How could he be at his age? Based on how it looks like right now in New Orleans, Peterson should only be expected to see 10-12 touches a week with limited work in the passing game.
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There will be that one owner in a majority of drafts who see his name still on the board in the fourth round and will scoop him right up due to his historic name. They will ignore his age, his injuries and his situation. Don’t be that guy.