Cleveland Browns need to trust the data for the entire draft

The Cleveland Browns might have found more players in the 2017 NFL Draft that have the potential to be true stars than any other team, but they are still missing opportunities to get better.

For as well as the Cleveland Browns did in the 2017 NFL Draft, they aren’t fully invested in the people getting them there. Executive vice president Sashi Brown and vice president of player personnel Andrew Berry are laying the groundwork for what can be an incredibly successful football organization with input from chief strategy officer, Paul DePodesta, potentially taking the league by storm. Despite that, they are not only having to change the minds of doubters outside the organization, but those within it as well and it’s slowing the team’s growth.

For two years running the NFL Draft, the front office has added enough assets so they had the most firepower of any team picking in the 2017 NFL Draft and are currently leading the league in draft assets for the 2018 NFL Draft. They have added four first-round picks in two years and are currently scheduled to have two more in 2018. They have used two second-round picks and currently own the rights to three more next year.

And yet, when it comes to using those assets, it’s still has skeptics within the organization, particularly from the coaching staff. In last year’s draft class, which had good players but paled in comparison to what 2017 had to offer, the Browns opted to draft a bunch of slow boil prospects with substantial athletic upside and overall potential.

Heading into the 2017 season, the Browns have Corey Coleman, Emanuel Ogbah, Shon Coleman, Cody Kessler, Carl Nassib, Joe Schobert, Ricardo Louis, Seth DeValve, Spencer Drango, Rashard Higgins and Trey Caldwell from that 2016 class.

Coleman is expected to be the Browns’ top receiver this year. Ogbah is an overwhelming favorite to start on the new look Browns defensive line. Coleman is the favorite to be the team’s starting right tackle. Kessler is at least currently atop the quarterback depth chart. Nassib is going to be a big part of the Browns defensive line rotation. The Browns cut Gary Barnidge in part because the team is so high on DeValve.

And yet, the input or interference in the draft from the coaching staff increased dramatically in the 2017 NFL Draft. Whereas last year where the Browns really went hard down the line with their analytics and believe in explosion, production and character, this year, the Browns were quick to abandon those beliefs in the second round and almost all of day three in favor of good old fashioned scouting.

In the 2016 class, Shon Coleman is a huge question mark as to which side had a bigger influence between front office or coaching staff, because he couldn’t test athletically due to a torn MCL. His age and height aren’t promising indicators for his long term success, but that’s not enough evidence to be definitive. Spencer Drango appeared to be a coaching pick as he was a mediocre athlete and projected as a backup. Even though both Higgins and Scooby Wright III (no longer with the team) didn’t really fit from an athletic standpoint, they both had overwhelming production which might have been enough to overcome it.

In 2017, the coaching staff’s finger prints are all over DeShone Kizer, picked in the second round, as well as the entire third day of the draft. Hue Jackson in particular appears almost entirely responsible for the Kizer picks. Kizer is an analytics dud, so most any faith in him is based on traits and insight, which is where Jackson comes into play.

Mar 4, 2017; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer throws a pass during the 2017 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe Jackson is right and Kizer will prove to be a good pick, but he’s the same person who wanted Robert Griffin III last year. The stakes weren’t as high with Griffin, but a year after Jackson wanted Griffin, he’s not only not a member of the Browns, he’s probably not going to be in the NFL this year.

Given the fact that Jackson was tasked with being the coach to fix the Browns and part of the reason they hired him being that they believe he can identify and develop a quarterback that can make them a contender, it’s hardly a surprise that he would have a major influence in picking the quarterback. It’s certainly defensible from a team standpoint, although given that Kizer’s future, at least from a data standpoint, is no brighter with the Browns than Griffin’s was, it may be quickly apparent that Jackson may be able to coach them, but he might not be ideal to pick them.

It’s important to note that Jackson and the Browns as a whole wanted Mitch Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes, but were unable to secure them as they were picked earlier than the team was willing to maneuver to get them. Nevertheless, Jackson came back in the second round and put his foot down and said he wanted Kizer.

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Jackson also wanted Jacoby Brissett last year, who was selected by the New England Patriots in the third round. After the Patriots snagged him, the front office took the quarterback they liked in Cody Kessler. Kessler, from a numbers perspective, appears to be a pretty decent quarterback prospect. Physically, it has not manifested and if he can’t improve dramatically from last year, he’s likely to be a career backup if he’s anything. From a purely data perspective, the numbers weren’t much kinder to Brissett than they are to Kizer.

The front office was pretty united on their opinion of Trubisky and Mahomes, which is promising. For whichever quarterback the Browns ultimately do select to be the franchise quarterback, it is critically important that Jackson and the numbers agree. The metrics need to show someone capable of taking a team to the Super Bowl while Jackson needs to see the traits to do it.

On Day 3 of this year’s draft, it appears as the numbers guys weren’t consulted at all. They may have gone ahead and told them to go home or just work potential undrafted free agents. From a data perspective, the Browns took a corner that might be pretty good if he can get substantially more explosive in the NFL in Howard Wilson, an offensive tackle that can’t play dead in Roderick Johnson, a defensive tackle in Caleb Brantley with more questions than answers, a kicker, and a reasonably talented running back that has long odds to make the roster.

The kicker, Zane Gonzalez, is the best prospect they got and he was picked in Round 7. And the Browns didn’t actually need a kicker as Cody Parkey was pretty good in his one year with the Browns, but the opportunity was too good to pass up, which is a great pick in Round 7.

Of the 10 players the Browns selected in the 2017 draft, just four of them are a true marriage of the numbers and scouting: the three first-round picks and third-round pick, Larry Ogunjobi. For a team that is supposed to be heavily influenced by analytics, that’s not a great rate and it’s more frustrating when looking at how many teams did better in that area than the Browns did.

This year’s draft class was incredibly deep and could have easily supported two extra rounds worth of players. There isn’t a team in the NFL that didn’t add at least one undrafted free agent that could be a contributor. And a few teams, like the Green Bay Packers for example, added four or five.

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So while some may be tempted to dismiss these picks as being unimportant, there were a ton of football players with legitimate NFL talent that went on Day 3 and the Browns missed on most all of them. That becomes more apparent when just looking around the AFC North, where the rest of the division used Day 3 to close the gap with the Browns after they got out to such a massive lead on Day 1 of the draft.

While the Browns came away with a kicker and maybe a solid corner, the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers came away with no fewer than two good prospects.

The Ravens got three in Nico Siragusa, who has Pro Bowl potential as a guard, Jermaine Eluemenor as another developmental offensive lineman and Chuck Clark, a talented hybrid safety.

The Bengals added a burner at wide receiver in Josh Malone and a really nice tight end prospect in Mason Schreck, who played inline and in the slot and led Buffalo in receiving this past year. They also added Carl Lawson, who some believed had the potential to be a first-round pick, but he also has major medical questions.

The Steelers added a big corner in Brian Allen, who could potentially player corner or safety. They also used the seventh round to add Keion Adams, a pass rusher from Western Michigan. He’s a good athlete and had a lot of production and should be a smooth transition to outside linebacker and given the lack of depth at that spot, could contribute as a rookie.

Oct 22, 2016; Tempe, AZ, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils kicker Zane Gonzalez (5) against the Washington State Cougars at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The missed opportunities for the Browns may not seem like much now, but it should hardly come as a surprise if, save Gonzalez, none of the Browns picks on Day 3 figure into the longterm plans of the team. Meanwhile, the rest of the division in particular, was able to use Day 3 to add some players that have NFL talent. They may not work out themselves, but their prospects are better than anyone the Browns picked on that day.

So, the best thing the Browns can do is trust Andrew Berry and the talent evaluation people they’ve hired. Sashi Brown is likely to play the role of a middle man that can get up in some of the tug of war stuff with various parties trying to get him to sign off on their picks. That’s kind of the reality of being in the position he is.

Beyond having the coaches guide the picks the team makes to fit their scheme, if they really want to have the coaches with significant input, they can. Just let the numbers guys give them a pool of players that the numbers look good on and let them pick from that. The coaches still get to pick the player they want, but it’s out of a group of candidates that all look promising. It just becomes a matter of finding the right match.

With what this front office has been able to do in free agency, working the waiver wire and in trades, the rest of the organization should have more faith in what they are doing. The hope is that some or all of these coaches will basically see that they are getting them the right players and decide to trust them to give them the right guys to put themselves in position to win. If not, at least take their input on why they have the data they do.

Al Saunders might be the most receptive guy on the coaching staff, since the Browns have picked four receivers and all four were promising by the numbers, with only Coleman costing them a premium pick. They also seem to working pretty well for Greg Seamon, who now has Seth DeValve and David Njoku in the tight ends room. Clyde Simmons, the new defensive line coach has Ogbah, Garrett, Ogunjobi added to Danny Shelton. It will be interesting to see how much he likes Caleb Brantley.

Between the talent and draft assets the front office has been able to acquire, it’s confusing how resistant the coaching staff at least appears to be with buying into their way of thinking. The 2017 NFL Draft was a monster and the Browns may have come away with four studs, but they also may experience significant buyer’s remorse. Streamline the process so more of the numerical data is included and informs the football decisions even if coaches are the ones making the picks.

The Browns are slated to have two first-round picks and three second-round picks in the 2018 NFL Draft. Whether they keep those, add more, or consolidate them for higher selections, hopefully all of the players they add in that class follow the promising trend set forth by this front office along with what the coaches want. If not, the front office may be better off trading every single pick from Day 3 to either add established players or try to add premium draft assets that everyone trusts them to use rather than throwing them away on bad bets late.