NFL Over/Unders 2017, Best Picks: AFC East

The NFL Over/Under lines are out for 2017, making now the best time to place your bets. We begin in the AFC East with lopsided lines and some easy picks.

NFL minicamps have opened. OTAs and training camps are getting underway. We are officially out of the offseason and into the preseason. With that, it is time to speculate wildly on everything from depth charts to position battles to standings to signings.

We debated quarterback battles in Cleveland and Chicago, as well as Cincinnati‘s running back battle. But the 2017 NFL Over/Under lines are out, meaning its time to make your bets with our best picks. Based on opening Over/Unders (per Westgate Las Vegas, via ESPN), we have an idea of how each division is expected to finish. Vegas isn’t always correct with its assessment though. There are flaws to exploit in its projections. We begin in the AFC East where things get a bit lopsided.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the 2017 NFL Over/Under lines in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

AFC East Over/Unders

New England Patriots: 12.5 wins
Miami Dolphins: 7 wins
Buffalo Bills: 6.5 wins
New York Jets: 5 wins

Yikes. If anyone thought the Patriots’ domination of this division might come to an end at some point, 2017 is not that point. This is by far the most lopsided divisional expectation in the NFL. Here are some interesting nuggets according to the Westgate lines:

This division has the best team in the league. It has the worst second-place team. This division is just half a game away from having the worst third-place team. It is tied for having the worst last-place team.

Verdict

Todd Salem: New England is the best in the sport. Every other team here is essentially the worst in its respective slot. Is that level of extremism really possible? I agree with the Patriots‘ line. 13 wins sounds right. I’d be inclined to take the over, but it’s obviously close at that high level. As for everyone else…

This division faces the AFC West and NFC South in 2017. That is by no means an easy draw. I agree that the Jets are going to have issues winning multiple games this season with what could be a very bad offense and front-loaded defense. I might go under five wins. Are Miami and Buffalo really worse than their prospective opponents, though, enough that each will finish below .500?

More from NFL Spin Zone

I really like Miami’s offense this season. The Dolphins are the toughest call for me of these four teams. I like a lot of what Buffalo has. The offense was dominant on the ground last year; the defense should be much improved just by being healthier. On top of that, removing the Ryan circus has to help calm things down. For everyone who was high on Buffalo going into last year, I am high on them as a post-hype sleeper this year. Cincinnati and Indianapolis could prove tricky as its “other” opponents, but each could also continue to collapse off last season.

I think the Bills finish in second place in the East and I’d easily grab the over. A mere 6.5 wins is too low.

Dan Salem: The Patriots are definitely the best in the NFL and the AFC favorite once again. No other team has kept its core together and improved this offseason. New England is poised to defend its championship and playing the AFC East will certainly help to pad its record. Yet, I completely disagree that the remainder of the AFC East division is the worst at each respective spot. These are not great football teams, but all three are huddling around average.

New England is a solid bet to get thirteen wins, but I’m taking two other teams with the over as well. The Buffalo Bills underachieved last season and retained quarterback continuity. A new coaching staff is a big unknown, but its likely they do well with an above average team. Buffalo is winning at least eight games.

I’m also betting on the New York Jets winning more than five times. The team lost veterans in the offseason, but none of them outside of Brandon Marshall were going to be major contributors to this football team. The Jets have a lot of young talent at wide receiver and drafted even more depth at the position. Eric Decker is back as well, meaning Marshall’s loss won’t be significant to the offense. Sure, the lack of quarterback continuity hurts. But New York’s defense is trending way up, so six wins feels like an easy accomplishment.

Next: Early Over/Under win predictions for all 32 teams

The one team I don’t much believe in is the Miami Dolphins. Injuries keep derailing the Dolphins and they have consistently underachieved on top of it. Miami did not do enough in the offseason for me to become a believer. They feel more likely to fall than rise up, so i’m going under on their win total.

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