NFL Over/Unders 2017, Best Picks: AFC South
By Dan Salem
The NFL Over/Under lines are out for 2017, making now the best time to place your bets. The AFC South is either really bad or really good with no middle ground.
NFL minicamps have opened. OTAs and training camps are getting underway. We are officially out of the offseason and into the preseason. With that, it is time to speculate wildly on everything from depth charts to position battles to standings to signings.
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We debated quarterback battles in Cleveland , Chicago, and Denver, as well as Cincinnati‘s running back battle. But the 2017 NFL Over?Under lines are out, meaning its time to make your bets with our best picks. Based on opening Over/Unders (per Westgate Las Vegas, via ESPN), we have an idea of how each division is expected to finish. Vegas isn’t always correct with its assessment though. There are flaws to exploit in its projections. Next up is the AFC South where every team is packed in the middle.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the 2017 NFL Over Under lines in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
AFC South Over/Unders
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 wins
Tennessee Titans 8.5 wins
Houston Texans 8 wins
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5 wins
Verdict
Todd Salem: Yikes. The AFC South is easily the worst division in football according to Over/Unders. I actually like three of these clubs, though. And the one I am down on the most is the one projected to tie for first place, the Indianapolis Colts.
Besides Andrew Luck, what looks good about this team? They have an elite run-blocking offensive line, but it hardly mattered last year. Frank Gore hasn’t averaged even 4.0 yards per carry since becoming a Colt. The pass catchers have potential, but no one outside of T.Y. Hilton seems to be filling it. The defense added Johnathan Hankins, even though it remained to be seen if any other team in the sport wanted him for a multi-year deal. And the Indy defense was really bad in 2016. I wouldn’t be surprised if Indianapolis finishes in last place.
I’m not completely sold on Jacksonville avoiding the basement in this division, but I also like this team’s post-hype sleeper vibe. Everyone was on-board last year. The Jaguars added more talent, and no one likes them now?
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While I also like the Titans a little, my favorite pick in the AFC South is the Texans’ over. How many wins is a healthy J.J. Watt worth? How many more wins is it worth to have gotten rid of Brock Osweiler? After a difficult first five weeks, Houston’s schedule really lets up. Another year, another AFC South crown is in store in my opinion.
Dan Salem: Either the AFC South is the worst division in football, or Vegas has no idea who will be any good. I lean towards option number two, because I find most of these teams to appear at least average on paper. The NFL Over/Under lines are pretty damn perfect, because none of these teams are great, but all could end up in the playoffs.
The best pick here is with Tennessee. I’d go over 8.5 wins for the Titans and feel awesome about it. This is a young football team that is making huge strides towards the top of its division and the conference. Marcus Mariotta is going to keep getting better and after Week 3, the schedule is nice and light. Facing the NFC West and AFC North is a sound opportunity for Tennessee to secure at least nine victories.
I also feel very good about the Jaguars under 6.5 wins. Count me as one of the disappointed bandwagon fans from a season ago who refuses to get burned again. Jacksonville’s quarterback situation is too volatile for me to count on this football team doing better than last year. With that logic you may think I’m confident in the Colts, but I’m not. Indianapolis is wasting Andrew Luck’s prime years. This isn’t a bad team, but its not competing for anything either.
Denver Broncos: Quarterback Battle Breakdown
I leave the Texans for last because I can see this team being 5-11 or 10-6 with equal certainty. Houston was a pretty good team last year, yet several major weaknesses kept them from being great. Perhaps they fixed them, or perhaps they brought in players who can fix things later, but not this season. I’m torn and would stay away from betting money on Houston.