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NFL Over/Unders 2017, Best Picks: NFC North

By Dan Salem

Dec 18, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) runs away from Chicago Bears outside linebacker Willie Young (97) during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 18, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) runs away from Chicago Bears outside linebacker Willie Young (97) during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports /
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The NFL Over/Under lines are out for 2017, making now the best time to place your bets. Is every team in the NFC North a bad bet to go Over? We debate.

Training camps are on the horizon with offseason workouts and minicamps having passed. Now teams are preparing for the season more seriously. And now is the time to wildly speculate about, well, just about anything that comes to mind regarding the 2017 season.

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We debated quarterback battles in Cleveland , Chicago, Denver, and New York, as well as Cincinnati‘s running back battle. But the 2017 NFL Over/Under lines are out, meaning its time to make your bets with our best picks.

Based on opening Over/Unders (per Westgate Las Vegas, via ESPN), we have an idea of how each division is expected to finish. The oddsmakers aren’t always correct with their assessment, though. There are flaws to exploit in its projections. Next up is the NFC North, where Vegas seems to think highly of every single team.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the 2017 NFL Over/Under lines in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

NFC North Over/Unders

Green Bay Packers: 10.5 wins
Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 wins
Detroit Lions: 7.5 wins
Chicago Bears: 5.5 wins

Verdict

Todd Salem: Projecting the order of finish in this division was the easy part. Unless you are insanely high on the Vikings, this foursome is going to finish in this order. The spacing between the win projections is where I take issue.

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Chicago is not going 6-10 or better. This is probably the worst team in the conference and arguably the worst team in football. The only thing crazier than a Bears over bet would be a Lions over bet. Detroit is not finishing .500 or better. It played more like a 7-9 club last year than the 9-7 record it finished with, and that was with an insanely efficient Matthew Stafford season where he set a career-best interception rate and QBR. He also led the league with an astounding eight fourth-quarter comebacks and eight game-winning drives. Remember, the Lions had nine total wins.

I would take the Vikings on a slight over, but the real gems of the NFC North are pounding the under for the two worst teams. Vegas doesn’t think they’ll be as bad as they are. The Packers are the team I have the littlest feel on. If forced to pick a side on Green Bay, I would lean under. There should be concerns about their depth. The roster is looking more and more like a stars and scrubs fantasy team each season. Any injury to a major player could cripple either side of the ball.

Dan Salem: I thought you might be higher on a few of our NFC North teams. Instead you echoed my sentiments, all be it to a lesser extent. I am going under on all four of our NFC North teams, with the best bets belonging to Chicago and Minnesota. This division is Green Bay’s to lose, but I don’t believe it’s particularly top heavy. The Packers stand alone, with every other team playing catch up.

Does anyone believe the Bears do better than last season? Not me. Chicago is a five-win team at best. The Vikings are also an eight-win team at best. They are uncertain at the quarterback position, meaning we can not trust them to win consistently. Minnesota is better than Chicago and Detroit, but that isn’t saying much.

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I’m also taking the under on Green Bay and Detroit because their lines are too high. One injury puts the Packers at 10 or fewer wins, and getting to 11 will be tough, regardless. The Lions are the one team I’m unsure of. They felt great at times last season, as well as below average. If Stafford can keep his momentum going, perhaps they win eight or more games. But seven or fewer victories is a much better bet.

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