2017 NFL MVP Odds: Complete breakdown, best picks

Dec 4, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) directs teammates before attempting a pass against the Buffalo Bills in the first quarter at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 4, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) directs teammates before attempting a pass against the Buffalo Bills in the first quarter at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports /

The odds for 2017 NFL MVP are out and there are some head scratching conclusions. We breakdown the odds and make our best picks.

This week, the odds for 2017 NFL league MVP were released. At the top of the rankings, the players with the lowest odds to take home the award, there were few surprises. Tom Brady is the favorite to take home the award. Aaron Rodgers was second and Ezekiel Elliott came in eighth and as the first non-quarterback.

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Who is the 2017 NFL MVP favorite? What player is the best value pick on the board? Whose odds are we completely flummoxed by (either too high or too low)? We break down the 2017 NFL MVP odds and make our best picks.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the 2017 NFL MVP odds in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

I think Tom Brady is the right choice as a favorite to win MVP honors, and a top three of him, Aaron Rodgers, and Derek Carr is on-point. If I was going to change anything at the top, Ben Roethlisberger having the fourth-lowest (tie) odds seems strange.

The best value on the board has to be the 50/1 long shot quarterbacks: Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, and Kirk Cousins. All three players head teams that could easily make the playoffs. All three are hinges for their respective offenses, yet play on units that could put up a ton of points. And all three would generate huge buzz if they started runs, a la Palmer two years ago.

Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, and Sam Bradford are also given 50/1 odds here, but none of them play on teams that are good enough to have a real shot at contention (Chargers, Lions), or they themselves don’t do enough (Bradford).

As for the weirdest player on the board, it’s Blake Bortles. His team isn’t even sure it wants him playing quarterback, and yet he makes the top 40 MVP list? I know he’s 100/1, but those are still worse odds than every non-quarterback in the sport minus a half dozen or so guys.

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Dan Salem:

These 2017 NFL MVP odds are pretty screwy. Tom Brady is not going to win NFL MVP while attempting to defend his Super Bowl championship as nearly the oldest player in the sport. He’s won the award twice, but not since 2010. Do we usually think of Brady as a great regular season player? No, we do not. That was Peyton Manning‘s moxy and he won MVP five times. A quick glance at the award’s history via Pro Football Reference and its obvious that a quarterback will likely win this year. Its also obvious that the winner will lead his team to the Super Bowl. Now for those odds you spoke of.

Only one player in the top ten is not a quarterback, which seems spot on. Yet the actual signal callers at the top are a bit crazy. I agree that Roethlisberger is a real long shot to win, but he is also one of the best bets available! This might be his final season and he is returning from an injury. Big Ben has one of the top receiving cores in the league, with a dominant running game to support it. If any quarterback comes out of nowhere to win MVP, my money is on Roethlisberger. I also like the potential of Derek Carr, but it’s why these two players are third and fourth, respectively.

The last player to repeat as NFL MVP was Peyton Manning in 2008 and 2009. Before that Brett Favre won the award from 1995 to 1997. Matt Ryan has the offense to repeat this season, but the odds are stacked heavily against him. Apparently the odds are not stacked against Adrian Peterson, who ranks in as an equal to Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. How crazy is that!? Manning has an even better offense than last season and could easily put together one final year for the ages. The same with Rivers, yet his team is much worse for wear.

Ultimately, an actual bet on 2017 NFL MVP must come down to two players. They must both be quarterbacks, because the history is rather telling. They must also be members of serious Super Bowl contenders.

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I like both Carr and Dak Prescott. Both played exceptionally well last season and return their offenses in tact for 2017. Both led playoff teams last year as well. I expect a similar story as each player elevates his game. My money is on Carr, because the AFC is insanely top heavy with a lot of bad and average teams. If I was feeling bold, I would bet on T.Y. Hilton for NFL MVP.

Just kidding.