Denver Broncos: How many sacks will Von Miller get in 2017?
By Bruce Matson
Can Denver Broncos superstar Von Miller surpass his personal record of 18.5 sacks in the 2017 NFL season?
The Denver Broncos used their first-round pick (second overall) in the 2011 NFL Draft to select Von Miller. Obviously, the team drafted him because he was one of the best players in the draft that year, and they needed a stud athlete to rush the passer. It’s not even up for debate; Miller should be considered one of the Broncos’ top draft picks in the last 10 years.
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Ever since Miller entered the league in 2011, he has been wreaking havoc on quarterbacks with 73.5 total sacks. Not only is he one of the league’s top pass rushers, but he’s pretty stout against the run with 272 total tackles on his career, averaging 45.33 per season — including high of 62 tackles in his best season (2016).
Here’s a run down of his sack totals by year:
- 2011: 11.5
- 2012: 18.5
- 2013: 5.0
- 2014: 14.0
- 2015: 11.0
- 2016: 13.5
Miller was able to obtain at least 10 sacks or more in every season except for the 2013 season, when he only played in nine games due to injuries. His best year was in 2012, where he reached the passer 18.5 times. He averages 12.25 sacks per year, and his average increases to 13.7 if you take away his injury-shortened season in 2013.
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It seems like the only thing that can get in Miller’s way from being one of the top pass rushers in the league is injuries. If he can stay healthy throughout the 2017 season, then the odds will be quite favorable that he finishes the year as on of the top pass rushers in the league.
This draws that question: How many games would he have to miss to keep him from finishing in the top five or even top 10 in sacks? Missing just one or two games shouldn’t impact his total too much, since he averages 0.76 sacks per game during the course of his career. However, if he misses five or more games, then he definitely risks finishing the season with a lower amount of sacks then what he would usually generate. Injuries are unfortunate and are almost impossible to predict, so we just have to hope that he can get through the entire 16-game season without a major injury.
Exactly how many sacks should Miller get this season? Like previously stated, his average is 12.25 a season, which is most certainly in the realm of possibilities. Last season, Miller played a total of 906 snaps, equating to 81.1 percent of the Broncos defense. With those numbers, he’s getting a sack in every 69.11 snaps, with 56.62 snaps per game, he’s averaging a sack in around 1.5 games.
At that current rate, he should finish the season with at least 12-13 sacks, which is very close to his career average. That rate doesn’t take “outlier” games in consideration, games where he immensely surpasses the average amount of sacks in a single game. Let’s say he goes on multi-game run where he gets a few multiple-sacks games. A run like this will easily bolster his end of year total. It’s not outside the realm of possibilities of him finishing the season with 18 or more sacks.
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Considering all factors — season schedule, career rate of sacks and potential of multi-sack games — I have him projected at 14, tying his total from 2014. I can see him getting more sacks than that, but I can’t see him getting less than ten sacks unless he gets injured. I’m not in the business of predicting injuries, so I’m going to assume he plays an entire 16-game season. No matter what happens this year, he should finish the season as one of the top pass rushers in the league as he continues to make his mark as one of the best defensive players in Broncos history.