Oakland Raiders: Guide to winning the AFC West

The Oakland Raiders came within a single game of winning the AFC West last season, now they must attempt to avoid the same situation this season.

Before last season, the Oakland Raiders had not played in a playoff game in 13 years. Not since they lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Superbowl XXXVII on Jan. 26, 2003. From then on, the Raiders would go on to experience rebuilding and a lack of success or stability. Between the 2003 and 2015 seasons, the Raiders had nine different head coaches. 18 different quarterbacks started at least one game for the Raiders during that same period. With all of the turnover, it is unsurprising they could not find their way back to the playoffs.

However, all of that changed last season. Led by third-year quarterback Derek Carr and head coach Jack Del Rio, the Raiders made the playoffs on a 12-4 record. They claimed the fifth Seed and lost in the Wild Card Round to the Houston Texans after Carr was forced to sit with a broken fibula. Making the playoffs after a 13-year hiatus should be feat celebrated among fans, but it could have been even better.

Had the Raiders been able to win their Week 17 game against the Denver Broncos they would have secured the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. This would have been them an additional week to prepare Carr’s backup, Connor Cook, for starting a playoff game. They also would have been able to host the game. Raiders fans are notorious around the league for being passionate and it is easy to believe that the excitement could have helped fuel the Raiders.

In all likelihood, with Carr out, the Raiders still would not have made it far in the playoffs. There is no argument, though, that getting the No. 2 seed in the AFC would not have made their job easier. So, how do the Raiders avoid playing in the Wild Card Round again?

It all starts with winning what has become one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers looked terrible last season. They finished 5-11, then proceeded to fire their head coach and leave the city of San Diego. Due to having a new head coach in a new city, many are expecting this to be another tumultuous season for the Chargers. But guess what? The Chargers are going to be good. I know that because they were never bad. 

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Out of the 11 games they lost last season, nine of those games were lost by a single touchdown or less. They beat the Falcons and the Texans both on the road last season. The Chargers were more unlucky than they were bad. The Chargers assigned 22 different players to the IR in 2016. That is over one-third of the 53-man roster. Among those 22 players were their two best wide receivers in Keenan Allen and Steve Johnson.

The Raiders must take the Chargers seriously this season. If the Chargers’ luck changes and they can stay healthy they will feature a strong passing attack led by six-time Pro Bowler Philip Rivers. Reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Joey Bosa had a great season in 2016 and there are high expectations to see even more from him this year. Their passing defense isn’t the strongest and that is what the Raiders will likely need to exploit in order to beat them.

Predictions

Week 6: Oakland Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers (Oakland Win, 34-24)
Week 17: Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (Oakland Win, 24-21)

Denver Broncos

The Broncos are the second team in the AFC West to have a new coach. This is Vance Joseph’s first opportunity to be a head coach in the NFL so it is hard to know exactly what to expect from him, but either way the mainstay of the Broncos will still be their defense. While Denver might have missed out on the playoffs last season, we should remember that we are only one year removed from their Super Bowl winning season due to one of the greatest defenses of all-time.

Von Miller is perhaps the most valuable man in the league who doesn’t play quarterback and the secondary of Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, TJ Ward, and Bradley Roby might as well be a Pro Bowl unit. The best news for the Raiders is the departure of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips from Denver. Phillips was largely credited for the defense’s success during their 2015 Super Bowl run and, while the defense will likely still be very good, no one is sure how his departure might affect the team.

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The running game will be vital for both teams in these games. The weakest point of the Broncos defense is their run stopping. If Marshawn Lynch is able to get going against this team then Oakland will likely be able to ground and pound their way to an ugly victory. If not and Carr is forced to throw a lot I would expect these to be multiple-interception games for Carr.

On Denver’s side, with the inexperience of both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch at quarterback, it will be important all season to establish an effective run. The Denver offense is not talented enough to have a successful passing attack if the opposing defense knows whats coming. If Oakland is able to shut down the run and try to force the Denver quarterback to make plays, that is ideal.

Predictions

Week 4: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (Oakland Win, 17-14)
Week 12: Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos (Oakland Win, 24-10)

Kansas City Chiefs

Here lies Oakland’s biggest hurdle. The Chiefs are a talented team that seems to be going nowhere but up. Andy Reid is perhaps the most underrated coach of the last two decades and, with him at the helm, the Chiefs should be considered the largest threat to grab the AFC West title away from the Raiders, like what happened last season.

As of right now the good news for the Raiders is that they have the more dynamic offense. The Chiefs are notoriously conservative on offense and rely on an aggressive defense and limited turnovers to win games. If the Raiders can score quickly and often against them it would be difficult for Kansas City to come up with enough points to win. The only two things that could change all of that if the Tyreke Hill takes a major leap from an offensive weapon to a star playmaker. Hill is insanely athletic and if he steps up from last season, the Chiefs offense comes much harder to plan for.

To beat the Chiefs the Raiders need a little luck and a lot of skill. Scoring against the likes of Marcus Peters and Eric Berry is never easy and, with Justin Houston hopefully making a healthy return the defense should be even better than it was last season. As long as Carr stays healthy, though, he has shown that he can beat the Chiefs in the past.

Predictions

Week 7: Oakland Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs (Oakland Win, 30-20)
Week 14: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Kansas City Win, 24-10)

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The shame of the Raiders getting good now is that everyone else in the division did so about three seasons ago. This is the most competitive division in the entire NFL, but that will just make it all the sweeter for Raiders fans when they see their team win it.