2017 NFL Predictions: AFC best bets and best picks
By Dan Salem
Our 2017 NFL Predictions travel to the AFC with some surprise picks. What odds are best and which teams can be trusted?
With less than a month remaining before the opening game of the NFL season, we have a pretty good idea of how each team is going to be constituted. Other than injuries, few major moves will change the landscape of the league from this point to Week 1.
Related Story: NFC Champion Best Bets and Best Picks
That means it’s time to declare our best bets for the 2017 season. We will pick the best value pick in each conference and then the Super Bowl. All odds come courtesy of Vegas Insider. We already hit the NFC. Next comes the AFC and our 2017 NFL Predictions.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, make their 2017 NFL Predictions in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
To the surprise of no one at all, the New England Patriots are heavy favorites to take home their conference crown. They are so clearly the favorites, the return is hardly better than the vig. Solid value starts as soon as the second team in the AFC though. New England is head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, meaning anyone else supplies a solid bet.
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Pittsburgh and Oakland have the second and third lowest odds respectively. Yet their odds are each 6/1 or longer. That is the state of this conference. I actually think the Raiders are a great pick at 7/1. This was one of the best teams in the AFC last year before Derek Carr got hurt. He is back, and the defense should take a step up after a disappointing season. If I had to wager on anyone here, it would be them.
Baltimore and Miami could have been intriguing long shots before their quarterbacks got hurt. Now, I don’t really see a viable long shot bet in this conference. The group is too top heavy, unlike the NFC. It would feel very, very surprising if anyone outside the top three or four teams ended up making the Super Bowl.
New England is a major part of that, but so are the second-tier clubs. I’m not as confident in Pittsburgh personally, but it and Oakland almost feel like the bottom rung of title contenders here. I don’t buy anyone else making that leap unless someone like Kansas City or Denver develops into the best defense in football. We’ve seen that before from the Broncos, so it’s at least possible, albeit not likely.
Dan Salem:
I’m on the Oakland Raiders bandwagon this season, so we agree that they are a tremendous bet to win the AFC with 7/1 odds. Can we call it a redemption story if they defeat Tom Brady and the Patriots in the championship game? Remember the ‘Tuck Rule’ game? Let’s just say Oakland has a chip on its shoulder.
One of my teams on the rise this season are the Baltimore Ravens, yet Joe Flacco‘s back injury scares the heck out of me. It feels like something that could linger throughout the year, yet has Flacco ever been the reason that Baltimore was successful? He’s always done just enough to win and not made many mistakes, but it was the defense or running game that truly elevated the Ravens. Therefore, I still like Baltimore with 20/1 odds. This is an excellent bet in a conference with few sleeper picks to be had.
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The Kansas City Chiefs with 12/1 odds are another solid pick. That is, if you believe Alex Smith can squeeze some productivity out of his offense for one more season. Its more likely the Chiefs take a small step back this year in the wins column, but I like this bet. If Kansas City reaches the playoffs, then they are in as good of a position as anyone to upset New England. The odds are decent, so the bet is worth taking. More 2017 NFL Predictions tomorrow!