Oakland Raiders: Michael Crabtree will outperform Amari Cooper again

Oakland Raiders star wide receiver Amari Cooper may get most of the attention, but Michael Crabtree is primed to have a better season once again.

The Oakland Raiders are a team on the rise. The Raiders rode a high-powered offense to their first playoff game in 13 seasons and might have gone further if not for a Week 16 injury to their franchise quarterback, Derek Carr. Aside from Carr, the Raiders’ two most important offensive playmakers are wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

Cooper and Crabtree have had different paths to get to this point. Both players were highly regarded in college and were top-10 draft selections. Crabtree was drafted No. 10 overall by the San Francisco 49ers in 2009 and Cooper was drafted No. 4 overall by the Oakland Raiders in 2015.

Cooper has been an immediate star for the Raiders. The Raiders named him their starting wide receiver during his rookie season. In Cooper’s first two seasons he has scored 11 touchdowns and gained 2,223 receiving yards, the ninth most all-time for a receiver to gain in their first two seasons. Crabtree’s path has had a few more obstacles, however.

While playing for the 49ers, Crabtree was viewed as a player who never lived up to potential. In the six years Crabtree spent in San Francisco he only broke 1,000 yards receiving once and scored 26 touchdowns, which averages just over four touchdowns per year. It is safe to say that when Crabtree arrived in Oakland in 2015, expectations were built more around the recently drafted Amari Cooper than him.

Cooper has been great for the Raiders, but Crabtree has been more productive for the team. Cooper has out gained Crabtree in yards over their two seasons in Oakland (Cooper has 2,223 yards over two years and Crabtree has 1,925), but Crabtree leads in almost every other basic category.

Crabtree has outscored Cooper 17 touchdowns to 11 over the last two seasons and has gotten more targets (291 vs 262) and receptions (174 vs 155) as well. As this trend as been true for the two seasons Cooper and Crabtree have played together, I believe it will continue this season for these reasons.

Red Zone Targets

Likely the only reason Crabtree gets more touchdowns than Cooper at all is due to his red zone targets. Head coach Jack Del Rio and Derek Carr have consistently shown that they either trust Crabtree in the red zone more than Cooper, or at least they believe Crabtree’s skill set fit better into their red zone offense.

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In 2016, Crabtree was targeted 21 times inside the 20-yard line and eight times inside of 10 yards. Of Crabtree’s eight touchdowns last season, six were from red zone targets and four came off of receptions inside of 10 yards. In fact, every pass Crabtree caught within 10 yards last season ended up a touchdown.

To compare, Cooper was targeted only 13 times inside of 20 yards and seven times inside of 10 yards. Of the seven times Cooper was targeted inside of 10 yards, none ended up in a completed pass. Not a single one of Cooper’s five touchdowns last season came from red zone targets.

This isn’t a statistical anomaly either. In 2015, Crabtree was targeted 13 times inside 20 yards and six times inside of 10 yards, despite only getting three receptions and two touchdowns from his red zone targets. Cooper was only targeted seven times inside of 20 yards and was not targeted a single time inside of 10 yards.

If this trend has held true over the last two seasons I do not see any reason to expect it to change now. Oakland’s offense was great last year even without Cooper getting red zone receptions, so it would seem unlikely that the Raiders spend a lot of time this offseason planning on how to involve Cooper more in red zone plays. It seems more logical that the Raiders don’t try to fix something that isn’t broken and keep Crabtree as their primary red zone threat.

Defensive Attention

Just because Crabtree gets significantly more looks within the red zone does not mean he is the better receiver. In fact, it is fairly clear that Cooper is the more talented player between the duo. However, Cooper being the bigger name and larger talent is actually good news for Crabtree’s production.

Being the star receiver on a team means not only will you have to go up against the best cornerback on the opposing defense every week, but also there will be many times that you get double or even triple covered during the season.

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Just look at the first eight defenses Cooper will face this season. During the first eight games, Cooper will face a top 15 cornerback five different times and a top 10 cornerback three times. And those are just individual matchups, not accounting for double coverage.

While this makes Cooper’s job much harder, it also opens up the field for Crabtree and the other receivers on the team to get more open looks. While the defense is focused on Cooper they have to move their attention away from  other playmakers. Crabtree will take advantage of this situation the same way he has for the last two years.

The best news for the Raiders is that they have a great player like Crabtree who can take advantage of these situations. Cooper, despite having a more difficult path, is still good enough to have a great season himself as well. Just watch this play from last Saturday’s preseason game against the Los Angeles Rams, where Cooper makes a spectacular catch despite triple coverage.

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The Raiders are in a good spot when writers are debating which one of their great wide receivers will have a better season. I believe that both players have a career year this year. However, if you want to bet on who has more touchdowns, targets, and receptions this season I would put my money on the man who has done it the last two years already: Crabtree.