Fantasy Football 2017: Predicting sophomore slumps

After dominant rookie seasons, which players are destined to fall victim to the dreaded sophomore slump in fantasy football?

Last year’s NFL rookies become this year’s fantasy football linchpins. One year of solid production is enough to make us believers in the long run. Of course, not everyone fulfills second-season expectations. There is a term called the sophomore slump for a reason.

Which rookie studs are destined for a sophomore slump this season? Let’s run through the top 2016 rookies and determine who is most likely to fall victim to such a slump in 2017.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate Fantasy Football in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Jordan Howard, RB – Chicago Bears

Todd Salem: Howard came out of nowhere to become one of the best fantasy running backs in the NFL last year. After finding his way into the lineup, he never looked back, and is now a first-round pick. Is the slump coming?

I say yes, and it may have little to do with Howard. The Bears stink. Though they also stunk last year, but defenses know what Howard can do now and will be primed to stop him, forcing the passing game to do damage…which it most likely will not. If Howard falls into the second round, he offers better value, but regardless, he feels like the best candidate to pull a Todd Gurley this season.

Dan Salem: Howard’s impending sophomore slump has everything to do with the awful football team he finds himself on. Last year he was an unknown in an offense that had a star at wide receiver and quarterback. Now opposing defenses will simply aim to stop Howard, because no one else on the unit is dangerous. Nothing outside of Chicago’s running game is formidable entering the year. Unless a new rookie breaks out and steals defensive attention, Howard is in for a statistical slump.

Michael Thomas, WR – New Orleans Saints

Todd Salem: Thomas was a bigger name out of college, but he similarly burst out of the crowd to become a fantasy star. Entering his sophomore year, Thomas is a consensus top 20 pick. With Brandin Cooks now in New England, things have worked out nicely for him to actually live up to that draft spot too. And I’m a believer. I expect no slump for Thomas in this Saints offense, with Drew Brees likely looking his way between 100 and 150 times this season. Maybe he doesn’t finish as the seventh-ranked WR like he did last year, but no slump is coming.

Dan Salem: Once again we are on the same page. Drew Brees makes Thomas a fantasy stud once again and he will endure no sophomore slump. With Brees tossing him the football, Thomas is going to get a lot of opportunities for catches and touchdowns. It may have little impact on the Saints win/loss record, but it will certainly be huge for fantasy owners. Count on Thomas to deliver.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB – Dallas Cowboys

Todd Salem: We wrote extensively about Elliott’s draft stock after he was given a six-game suspension. What would be considered a slump now that he will miss a large portion of the season? When he is on the field, I expect no downgrade in his performance. To me, that means no slump is pending.

Dan Salem: I don’t believe Elliott ends up with a six-game suspension, raising his fantasy stock considerably. My instincts say that he is in for a small sophomore slump, but running behind the Cowboys’ dominant offensive line may render it non-existent. Elliott will find the end zone fewer times, mainly because I don’t think that Dallas will be as dominant this season. That is the key here. Dallas will need to throw more to win, instead of running to hold a late lead. This hurts Elliott’s fantasy value as compared to last season. He is still a stud, just a less impressive one. That counts as a slump.

Tyreek Hill, WR – Kansas City Chiefs

Todd Salem: I can see a major slump coming from Hill on the field. No one knew what to expect from him or how to defend him last season. Now, he is the Chiefs’ No. 1 option on all plays. They have no one else at wide receiver. Can Hill consistently beat double coverage with risk-averse Alex Smith throwing the ball? I am dubious. I would want nothing to do with Hill as my top fantasy wide receiver.

Dan Salem: I do not trust the Kansas City Chiefs this season. Alex Smith is nearing the end of his viability as a starting quarterback and the Chiefs are attempting to re-tool their team while still staying competitive. This hurts Hill’s ability to put up big numbers.

Kansas City will be a defensive team this season, more so than in the past. Hill is the main threat on offense, meaning he is the first player that opposing defenses will remove from the game. I don’t think the offense is dynamic enough to overcome this shift. Hill suffers a slump because of it.

Dak Prescott, QB – Dallas Cowboys

Todd Salem: There is no question in my mind that Prescott is going to be worse in fantasy this season than he was as a rookie. However, it may not be because he slumps. Heck, his rushing touchdown total is going to go down, and that alone will make for a lesser total. My guess is Prescott will be a better real-life player than fantasy player this season, which means he will slump for our purposes but not for those of Dallas.

Fantasy Fallout: Ezekiel Elliott Suspension Breakdown

Dan Salem: Prescott will be asked to throw a lot more than last season. Playing in more close games and without Elliott for the first month or so puts pressure on Prescott to win Dallas football games. He is up to the challenge and no sophomore slump is coming. I agree that he finds the endzone less with his legs, but an increase in his passing stats will balance things out. Prescott stays atop the quarterback field in fantasy football 2017.

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