Cincinnati Bengals: Thoughts on Vontaze Burfict suspension reduction

After appeal, Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict has seen his expected five-game suspension to open the 2017 NFL season reduced to three games.

Just a couple days ago, we were confronted with the news that Vontaze Burfict, the Cincinnati Bengals‘ oft-troubled but talented linebacker, was being suspended for the first five games of this season for a hit on a defenseless receiver against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Bengals’ second preseason game.

I wrote into detail about how that may impact his future with the team already, but with a change in the expected length of the suspension — from five games to three — makes it worth another look when determining what it means for both player and team in the immediate short-term.

Here are a few quick takeaways I have for the Bengals’ season now that they’ll have Burfict available to them for more of it.

He’s Still Missing The Games Where He’d Make The Most Difference…

Looking at the five games Cincinnati was originally set to play without Burfict, the two which probably line up as the easiest come in the games he will now be allowed to take part in. While he still won’t be on the field against Baltimore, Houston, or Green Bay, he will now get to be out there to play against…Cleveland and Buffalo.

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Even without Burfict, those two games should be winnable for a playoff-hopeful team like these Bengals. Cleveland is still a season or two away from truly competing for the playoffs. Buffalo has sold off numerous key pieces for draft picks, and could still embark on more of that as they dive headlong into their own new rebuilding efforts.

It isn’t out of the question that Cincinnati could lose each of those first three games, however.

They’ve had Baltimore’s number for the better part of this decade (7-3 since 2011 season), but seven of those games have been decided but just one score (5-2 CIN advantage) so it isn’t as if they’ve blown their rivals out of the water on a regular basis.

Houston was atrocious on offense last season (30th in Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA in 2016), but they still beat Cincinnati 12-10 at the end of last year with a top defense (No. 9 in Defensive DVOA) which may get even better with the return of J.J. Watt from injury. Plus, their offense couldn’t possibly be any worse under the Tom Savage/DeShaun Watson duo than it was under a year way too full of Brock Osweiler.

They have had recent success against Green Bay, but haven’t played them since Mike Zimmer left for Minnesota. It would be difficult even with him still around (relative to other units Aaron Rodgers have faced Mike Zimmer’s Bengals defense did very well, but even his bad performances tend to be a step above most quarterbacks). Without their supposed kryptonite long gone, it would be tough for Cincinnati to take down the Packers even with their full deck of talent.

…But Cincinnati Will Have A Better Chance At The Postseason

Based on my earlier explanations, that statement may seem pretty inane, but delving a bit deeper explains my reasoning for it.

Even without Burfict, these Bengals should have more than enough talent to beat both Cleveland and Buffalo handily. A loss to either of them sans Burfict would have been a massive indictment on this team. With him in tow, the odds in those two contests only lean heavier into already-favorable expectations for Cincinnati.

What really makes the difference here, however, is not only is the team getting him back on the field in the first place, but he’s being given the opportunity to work his way into the season in games where the results matter but shouldn’t be in question.

Having Burfict able to ease himself into a rhythm with two contests against teams his Bengals should help him as the season continues along. That rhythm could make a huge difference, considering the turn their schedule takes after the Buffalo game.

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In Week 6, the team will be on a bye, but things get rough over the ensuing month. A road game against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers (who they are 3-8 against since 2011, including playoffs). Three straight games (two on the road) against AFC South teams (vs Indianapolis, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee). A road trip to Denver (1-4 vs Broncos since 2011; Denver was No. 1 in Defensive DVOA in 2016).

This is a stretch that will make or break the season for Cincinnati. Losing to Pittsburgh or Denver may be expected, but if Burfict is in midseason form he could make the sort of difference to not only keep those contests close, but win one of them. Those games against the AFC South may not seem too difficult at first, but that’s a division where any one the four teams has a legitimate case for taking their divisional crown this year. If Burfict isn’t at the top of his game, Cincinnati would be vulnerable to lose at least one of those contests.

Having those early couple of games to work out the kinks could make the difference for him in the middle of the year, and give his team enough wins in the tank as the playoff push goes into overdrive in December.

Still, It Won’t Change His Future With The Team

Nothing has been decided as to whether Burfict will return to the team after this season. His contract ends after this season. His performance alone makes him highly valuable — and hence, worthy of a massive contract — but his on-field conduct which gets him labelled as “dirty” (late hits, allegedly trying to hurt people, etc.) does major damage to his value.

He’s been dinged with personal foul penalties, fines, and suspensions to a startling degree in his short career. The way he’s conducted himself lends itself to putting him in position to have these issues not only damage his team in the games he plays, but remove him from the field altogether.

Also it’s important to note: as the NFL leans more heavily into player safety concerns, the rules have lent even more to transgressions of Burfict’s nature to stack upon each other. In turn, the potential punishments become more severe each time he does something which could fall under the banner of the dirty play that’s assumed of him now.

We see that hurting him already with this suspension in particular. In their explanation after his appeal, the league explicitly stated that his prior actions were evidence enough that he was the exact sort of player these rules have been put in place to punish. Especially considering he’s had at least one fineable (or worse) action every year of his career, he’s never going to fully put this reputation behind him; because of that, he’ll always be a risk to miss increasingly large chunks of time for even mundane-appearing infractions which others could get away with. He’ll never have the benefit of the doubt again; it may not be completely fair, but it’s the fact.

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All in all, having his suspension reduced from five to three helps in the short term outlook, and may help give his team the little edge necessary to get back in the playoffs.

Long-term, however, it has done absolutely nothing to assuage the concerns the team should rightfully have with potentially rewarding him with a large contract and tying themselves to him for multiple years beyond 2017.