Cincinnati Bengals: Roster cut predictions, Defense
By Kenn Korb
Defensive Linemen
* = starter; + = roster spot
* Carlos Dunlap
* Michael Johnson
+ Will Clarke
Wallace Gilberry
+ Jordan Willis
+ Carl Lawson
Marcus Hardison
+ Chris Smith
Ryan Brown
* Geno Atkins
Pat Sims
* Andrew Billings
+ Ryan Glasgow
DeShawn Williams
David Dean
Josh Tupou
Back when the defense was what fueled Cincinnati towards multiple playoff appearances, it was the talents up front first and foremost who consistently made their presences known and enforced their impacts on opposing offenses.
That’s been far from the case the past lately, however. From 2012-15, Cincinnati’s defense was 10th or better in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA three times. In 2016, they dropped to a middling 17th.
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A lot of this trends out with their defensive line play in general. A group which was 12th or better in sack percentage three times between 2011-15 and 12th or better in multiple Football Outsiders run defense metrics in that time became full-on mediocrity in decline. 2016 saw their sack percentage rank 15th (second-worst of the Andy Dalton era) while the group fell into the 20s in all but one of FO’s run defense metrics (overall, where they ranked 19th).
This probably should’ve been expected when considering how the unit was built. Far too many past-their-prime veterans have been all the group has leaned on the past few seasons, and it shows. A youth movement was necessary to prevent an even more precipitous drop in performance.
That’s not quite taken full effect yet, but initial steps were made. Players like Domata Peko were allowed to leave. A handful of young talents have been added through the draft in recent seasons, including the one this spring.
The team has yet to show if it’s truly ready to go headlong into the youth movement though, and based on how reluctant the team tends to be with moving away from names they’ve come to trust over multiple years I’d be surprised if all the old guys depart regardless of their recent performances or remaining abilities.
Still, some almost have to go just based on the sheer number of young faces the team has invested draft capital in.
Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap are still studs, but at least a couple of the other long-term Bengals linemen have to go. Pat Sims, Michael Johnson, Will Clarke, and Wallace Gilberry had their moments in years past. But based purely on their current ability not a single one should be on the roster. It’s been multiple seasons since any of them were consistently positive producers, and it’d any snaps used on them rather than their younger counterparts is a waste at this point.
Of them, I think Gilberry and Sims finally are moved away from. It’s easy to determine with Gilberry. He was already actually with another team last season but was signed in an emergency due to injuries midway through the season. Since then, the team added Lawson and Willis through the draft while trading for Smith, and each has stood out majorly across the preseason, adding to already considerably positive expectations and belief in them. I expect all three of them to make the roster.
For Sims, it isn’t as simple, but does follow the same basic idea. Younger talents (Andrew Billings, Ryan Glasgow) were added the past two drafts, and with Sims being little more than a big body these days having that young energy and ability would help the team much more than anything Sims can provide now. I expect both of those guys to make the roster at Sims’ expense.
If Cincinnati wasn’t so deathly attached to their aging veterans, I’d suggest going away from Johnson and Clarke once and for all. In that case, I’d favor young guys like Williams and Hardison who could have upside working at multiple spots along the line, or possibly even a young space-eater in Tupou.
Too much change is not what you should bank on in a non-rebuilding situation though, so just be glad a couple of the past-prime players were given the boot.