Inside the 5 takes a dive into five of the biggest storylines of each week throughout the season, starting with NFL Week 1.
Wake up, NFL fans. The doldrums of the offseason have subsided, the largely meaningless (save for 2-3 quarters) preseason too has come to an end. With that, Week 1 of the regular season is upon us, kicking off on Thursday night from Gillette Stadium as the New England Patriots welcome the Kansas City Chiefs.
As the regular season begins, so does a new weekly column entitled “Inside the 5”. Each Monday, I’ll dive into five of the biggest storylines of the week, offering thoughts and analysis on various things. Obviously Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season offers a different beast with only four preseason games to base opinions off of.
Even still, we’ll try to narrow it down to the same five storylines to look at and make some sense of the season to come. And with the Patriots and Chiefs getting things underway, we’ll start with the former and the defending Super Bowl Champions.
The Potential Struggles of New England’s offense
Ask most NFL fans about the Patriots coming into 2017 season, and you’ll get responses that all carry a common theme: This team is the favorite to win Super Bowl LII and has a viable shot at going 16-0 for the second time in the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era. And when you look at the talent on both sides of the ball, it’s easy to see where that assessment stems from.
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On offense, Brady is still in control with a solid offensive line still in-tact to protect him. However, where they’re expected to see an uptick is in terms of the weapons that their future Hall-of-Famer quarterback has at his disposal. Rob Gronkowski is back healthy, for starters. But then trades that landed them wide receivers Brandin Cooks and later Phillip Dorsett further strengthen the group. Throw in a litany of running back signings to join James White and Dion Lewis and this already lethal group appears even more dangerous.
Then the other side of the ball has also improved. Though there are questions on the edge up front, the group on defense overall has taken a step forward. Most notably, upgrading from Logan Ryan to Stephon Gilmore is huge in the secondary opposite Malcolm Butler. As a whole, New England’s defense was sneakily shaky at times last year (28-3, anyone?), but that should be less of an issue in 2017.
With that being said, thoughts of 16-0 should be tempered somewhat. There is at least somewhat of a chance that the Patriots offense will have growing pains early in the season. This isn’t meant to lessen the greatness of Brady — doing so would be a fool’s errand. However, it feels as if people are underestimating the importance of Julian Edelman.
Out with a torn ACL suffered in the preseason, the Patriots offense is going to feel that loss even with the additions of Cooks and Dorsett. Danny Amendola can try to fill the possession-type role that Edelman plays, but he’s far less adept at it than Brady’s favorite target. Subsequently, the result could well be an offense that flashes greatness early, but takes a bit to find their normal consistency.
Is there any grand reason to worry about the Patriots this season? Not in the slightest. They’re going to win double-digit games and remain favorites to win the Super Bowl. However, 16-0 seems a bit ambitious given the loss of one of the most critical components on offense.
Can the Breakout Teams Put It Together?
While the Patriots have been putting together a dynasty, teams like the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been struggling to rebuild to reach former glory. Coming into the 2017 campaign, many believe that they’ve done so — or at least that both teams are close.
The immediate and long-term futures of the Titans and Bucs will forever be linked because of who heads the franchises at quarterback. Tampa Bay took Jameis Winston first-overall in the 2015 NFL Draft while Tennessee followed with Marcus Mariota. In doing so, they both have landed their franchise guys. And as they’ve built teams around both signal-callers over the past two years, it now seems both players and their respective teams are prepared to make the leap.
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For the Buccaneers, they’ve done wonders on both sides of the ball this offseason. Winston now has a vast arsenal of weapons to operate with. Joining the massive target that is Mike Evans is veteran speedster DeSean Jackson, a highly talented rookie in Chris Godwin, another exceptional rookie in tight end O.J. Howard, and have gotten their line healthy. Defensively, building with the likes of Gerald McCoy, Kwon Alexander and new addition T.J. Ward makes the group much more formidable than they have been.
The fortunes of the Titans have been equally as fruitful. Mariota also has new toys in his receiving game with No. 5 overall pick Corey Davis, third-rounder Taywan Taylor and sleeper tight end Jonnu Smith. Joining Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker in addition to 2016 additions at running back, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, the offense has immense firepower. They’re aided further by a fantastic offensive line anchored on the edges by Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin.
Meanwhile, the additions of Logan Ryan, Adoree’ Jackson, Johnathan Cyprien and Kevin Dodd should all help to make the defense substantially better, in addition to the progression of promising young players like Kevin Byard.
Now what remains to be seen is whether it all comes together for these teams. Looking good on paper is one thing, but taking the next step on the field is another. All eyes will be on both Tampa and Tennessee from the start of Week 1 to see if they can put that foot forward.
Dalvin Cook Should Be Your Rookie of the Year Favorite
There is a lot of buzz about many of the offensive weapons that were selected in the 2017 NFL Draft. Leonard Fournette appears as if he’ll be the lone bright spot for the Jacksonville Jaguars offense. Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey is expected to wear many hats for the Carolina Panthers. Throw in guys like John Ross, O.J. Howard and even Mitchell Trubisky, it should be a tight race for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
By my estimation, though, the Minnesota Vikings landed the guy who should be the top candidate for the award entering Week 1. Former Florida State running back Dalvin Cook was projected as a first-round prospect for most of the draft process. But after an underwhelming NFL Combine and questions about his off-field character and his health, he slipped to the second round — a blessing for the running back needy Vikings who were without a first-round pick.
However, Cook has shown throughout the preseason that what everyone should’ve been concerned about was his film. He proved to be dynamic and explosive throughout his time as the primary ball-carrier for the Seminoles. And that’s the same form he’s displayed as Minnesota’s No. 1 running back this preseason with free-agent pickup Latavius Murray sidelined due to injury. Ultimately, it would appear that Cook used that time to usurp Murray for the job as the Vikings’ RB1.
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The one concern for Cook would be the offensive line in Minnesota. It was an absolute sieve one year ago that stifled any hope for a running game and left Sam Bradford running for his life. They’ve improved that unit this offseason with additions, but the unit still leaves a great deal to be desired.
With that said, the offensive line at Florida State wasn’t particularly good either, and Cook still looked like a beast in the collegiate ranks. Obviously this is the NFL, a whole different ballgame in terms of competition. However, there is still reason to believe in the rookie’s talent. And if he’s given the proper opportunity, he should be able to pull through as the Offensive Rookie of the Year for 2017.
Teams That Will Be Worse Than Expected
Everyone knows that the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are going to be quite awful. As long is Blake Bortles is starting, the Jaguars are going to struggle to win games. And though hopeful, it wouldn’t be wise to expect much from the Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears either. That’s the accepted group of teams that will comprise the top of the 2018 NFL Draft order. While that may be so, two teams stand out as squads that fans may be expecting too much from.
Both the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts are going to be bad in the 2017 NFL season. Not bad in the sense that two teams with perennial playoff expectations won’t reach the postseason — bad in a way where they could be in the conversation with the aforementioned group of teams.
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Starting with the Bengals, this just seems like a group that is set up for failure. There’s no denying the talent that they have at skill positions. A.J. Green is a top-tier wide receiver, and Tyler Eifert is elite when healthy. Meanwhile, rookies John Ross and Joe Mixon could be stars given their level of talent. With that said, the primary issue comes down to their offensive line.
Throughout his career, Andy Dalton has struggled most when put under pressure. Not only does he not make great decisions or throws in those instances, but it also overall lessens his effectiveness as it usually coincides with an inconsistent rushing attack. This season, the Bengals will be without their two best offensive linemen from a year ago, Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zietler. Considering that the line was still bad overall last season with that pair, things could be dismal this season. Coupled with an aging and declining overall defense, and this could be a bad team.
Also in the AFC, the Colts’ outlook perhaps looks even more bleak — though the reasoning is simple. It starts with Andrew Luck not being able to start the season. This team goes as their quarterback does. So without him to begin the 2017 campaign, they have little hope as a Scott Tolzien led team. With their best offensive lineman, Ryan Kelly, also injured, this offense is going to have major issues.
Meanwhile, the defensive issues for the Colts will persist. They have some tantalizing pieces with the likes of rookie Malik Hooker at safety. What’s more, new general manager Chris Ballard added a ton of vets to shore up the unit as a whole. Still, they offer little resistance to most playoff caliber opponents. You can’t undo the damage Ryan Grigson did in one year, which will be apparent in Indy from Week 1 on.
Are Expected Contenders Really Contenders?
Perhaps because of name recognition in addition to their success last season, the Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders appear pencilled in the playoffs. Unlike with some of the other teams we’ve discussed that fall into the same category, though, the issue for the Cowboys and Raiders is similar. While both offenses appear to still have the firepower necessary to succeed, it’s their defenses that are worrisome.
Despite having their shortcomings and several bad outings, the Cowboys defense a year ago was at least steady. They were solid against the run and made plays against the pass in the secondary. But now they’re relying on a young, new group in the secondary after departures of their entire starting unit from 2016, save for Byron Jones, in free agency. With a pass rush still shrouded in uncertainty and injuries at linebacker, this defense could take a step back. If that happens, America’s Team is far from a playoff lock.
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As for the Raiders, they barely showed promise last season on defense outside of their edge rushers. They made improvements in the secondary and should be better in that regard, but the middle of the defense — linebacker in particular — remains problematic. We saw in the preseason that the secondary will have growing pains, and they’re likely to have issues stopping the run on a consistent basis. Subsequently, you have to wonder if a step back from 12-4 a year ago is coming.
For my money, I have faith in the overall teams for the Cowboys and Raiders to put successful 2017 seasons together. There’s too much talent throughout the roster for that not to happen. With that being said, don’t be shocked if I’m wrong in that assessment. The blueprint for that being inaccurate is certainly there.