Fantasy Football 2017: Major regression among stars

Stars emerge in fantasy football every season, but most struggle to maintain such high levels going forward. Which 2016 studs are in for major regression in 2017?

Every year in fantasy football, we see players come out of nowhere to become major assets and/or make huge leaps in their production. It is rare for a breakout player of a certain age to stay broken out, so to speak. Often, a season of regression is on the horizon.

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This does not mean these players will be bad, but simply far from the value they are being drafted at. Which star players are facing a major regression in fantasy football 2017?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate Fantasy Football in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Background

Regression candidates are not the same as draft busts. There will be some overlap, but while a bust proves himself unusable or not useful, regression players are simply guys being overvalued. Think of Todd Gurley entering last season. He had become a top pick, but really regressed thanks to the team around him. However, Gurley still was a starting fantasy back every week, finishing in the top 15 at his position. Owners who drafted him were sorely disappointed in his output but not enough to take him out of the lineup.

Here are some regression candidates for Fantasy Football in 2017. Players who can still live as useful fantasy options; just don’t overdraft them.

Matt Ryan

Todd Salem: The easiest regression candidate to locate this year is Matt Ryan. He is being drafted as a top-five quarterback, yet that level of output seems unlikely. He will probably settle somewhere in the top 12 at the position, meaning he should be started in all leagues. But his owner won’t be happy if it takes a top pick to acquire him.

LeSean McCoy

Todd Salem: He is being universally drafted in the first round, but color me nervous about his production. McCoy’s career has been wildly sporadic to this point, alternating monster seasons with 800 yards and barely any touchdowns as he battles injuries. He’s the San Francisco Giants of fantasy football.

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Add to his up-and-down nature the fact that the Buffalo Bills are actually building for the future and may not be trying to win many games in 2017. The offense lost its top two receivers, and the newly acquired Jordan Matthews immediately fractured his sternum. I’m not sure how Shady will find any running room. Defenses may throw 10 guys in the box just for the sake of it.

Jarvis Landry

Todd Salem: Landry was generating lots of buzz after two-straight great seasons at wide receiver. However, he now enters a season with a domestic violence charge pending, a contract dispute with his club over an extension, as well as a new quarterback throwing him the ball. And that quarterback was retired from the league before Ryan Tannehill went down with injury. I’m not saying Landry will be a bust by any means, but I predict some regression from his heights as a top-50 player.

Besides these guys, do any players jump out at you as being primed for regression? We won’t cross them off our draft boards, but be sure to drop them from their ADP.

Tom Brady

Dan Salem: I’m doubling down on our Super Bowl quarterbacks, because both feel ready to regress. Ryan’s stats always go up and down, year after year. Last season he was way up. As far as Tom Brady is concerned, he is going to regress soon. If it’s not this season, then next, so I’m raising the red flag of risk. He is not worth drafting high, but he is being valued like the first or second best quarterback. Brady is now 40 years old and there is no telling what will go first, plus he lost Julian Edelman for the season. Buyer beware. A regression is coming.

Marshawn Lynch

Dan Salem: We must go way back in time, in terms of fantasy football history, to find when Lynch was a dominant player. Note the sarcasm, but a full year off from football is enough to scare me off. He is being drafted like the former player he was, yet Lynch is now on the Oakland Raiders. He has not played in a real game for quite some time, meaning he is going to regress from the production we once saw. Furthermore, Lynch was not a top fantasy back in his final season with the Seahawks. He started only seven games. That adds up to three years since he last was the No. 1 guy. Consider me a skeptic.

Leonard Fournette (Bonus)

Dan Salem: This pick is not so much a regression, as an overvalue of a player’s potential based upon what we want him to be, rather than the team he is actually playing for. Fournette is a rookie, so he can’t regress. But damned if he isn’t being drafted like a bonafide star player. He plays for the Jaguars, not the Dallas Cowboys.

Next: 2017 NFL Picks, score predictions for Week 1

The Buffalo Bills are not the only team with a high risk running back. Do we honestly trust the Jacksonville Jaguars to be good enough to have a productive running game? They don’t have a reliable quarterback, much like the Bills with Tyrod Taylor dealing with a concussion. Chris Ivory did okay last season, but not first round “okay”. Fournette is receiving top-10 running back consideration, but he feels like a top 20 guy at best on this team, this season.